Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
Disclaimer: I have not seen the published study yet.
Antibody tests in Spain have found 5% prevalence, with 15% in the hardest affected areas. They tested 90,000 people across 36,000 households.
That isn't especially promising for the "more people have it than we think" belief.
If you backdate to April 27, and reduce Spain's death toll from its current count to what it was on that day, you end up with an IFR of around 1%. If you double the infection rate to account for the lag in antibodies (probably not terribly likely given the lockdown), then your IFR is 0.5%
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Eeeek still 5 times worse than the flu, but not nearly as bad as it was looking.
Serology is going to be hell of a hindsight 20/20