Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28
The question that will always be posed is why didn't we see the "explosion" of this until March?
I agree, I think it was here as soon as November if not October but whatever. It calls into questioning the testing. I don't mean that as conspiratorial but simply we weren't looking for Covid back then. Of course now if you get ran over by a drunk driver, who was texting and and a heart attack behind the wheel you died from Covid.
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Two reasons
1) R0 is an average not an absolute
2) Exponential growth
Hypothetically a few people expatriate from Wuhan who were asymptomatic or have mild illness and decent hygiene. Is the disease over here? Yes. But if they are more socially isolated while over here, or just by random chance they may not pass the disease to anyone, or one person who doesn't pass it on to anyone else, so the disease dies out.
Also, it takes a while for an infected population to reach a critical mass where you are going to find large and sudden increases in caseload.
If I assume a 30% day over day growth in cases, how long does it take me to get over 1000 cases?
27 days.
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"When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
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