Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
For Hamas' erudition:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html
Another limitation with the case fatality rate is that some people who are counted as confirmed cases may eventually die from the disease, which would lead to an increase in the death rate. For example, South Korea initially reported a case fatality rate of 0.6% in early March, but it later rose to 1.7% by the beginning of April, according to New Scientist. |
Yes. A big issue with this is that the layperson thinks a snapshot is definitive. That's why I mentioned on here sometime back that 100% of current smokers have not yet died of lung cancer. Given what we've seen from some of the better-designed antibody studies and analyses of population level mortality, I would venture a guess that the IFR is probably a tick under 1% if you have adequate hospital capacity. However, given the R0 is also much higher than the flu, then absent mitigation strategies, you are looking at dozens and dozens of deaths more than a regular flu season, which is why we did what we did.
France, for example, reduced their R0 by 77%, from 2.9 to 0.67.
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"When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
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