Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
The CDC claim of 0.4% IFR is pretty optimistic given that serology studies in New York and Spain put the level between 0.8-1.1%. Given that the antibody tests are more likely to overstate infections than understate them (which would actually lead to an increase in IFR), and that they are only using deaths from March to model these assumptions (which creates a much lower sample size and thus a higher degree of uncertainty), I don't know how firm those conclusions really are.
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the .4 is not there most optimistic model. That is their best estimate unless you mean something else.
Their most optimistic model is .2