Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city
It makes it important to see what the percent positives you’re getting are. The lower they are the better and more widespread your testing is
But with the asymptomatic spread and such it’s just damn near impossible
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Looking at it from the other end of the timeline instead of trying to watch it as it’s happening is helpful.
In New York, they went from nearly zero known infections at the beginning of March to what some people think might be 2 or 3 million total infections by the time their peak had passed in mid April.
For that to happen in 45 days they would have needed to average 50,000 new infections a day over the whole outbreak. Since it wouldn’t have been linear, probably at the height it was more like 100,000. An incredible transmission rate.
But, New York is a tinderbox. Overcrowding, mass transit, buildings with shared ventilation, tons of multigenerational households, etc etc