Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
Yes, it's rather hyperbolic to say it will be over in four weeks when we are presently seeing new daily cases three times what is was. In March. We are also seeing a rather dramatic uptick in new deaths, which follows the new case growth.
Hopefully, we can get that under control to some extent soon.
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So, clearly you missed the entire point being made by me about excess deaths as a metric.
If you instead just care to attack his premise as being ridiculous... it depends on what he means by "over." If you look at UK data they were on an upswing until they hit a peak and 4 weeks later were clearly halfway down the curve to normal death rates (actually slightly lower). So, 4 weeks is not at all a ridiculous timeframe. I don't personally have that point of view mostly because I look at the US regionally or state by state, I'm not really concerned with the overall picture as it doesn't really mean much data wise. It would not be out the question though for enough of the US to be over the curve that the areas that are not there yet would have little effect on the overall picture. (It's not my belief that it will happen in that timeframe but somewhat plausible)