Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief
So, clearly you missed the entire point being made by me about excess deaths as a metric.
If you instead just care to attack his premise as being ridiculous... it depends on what he means by "over." If you look at UK data they were on an upswing until they hit a peak and 4 weeks later were clearly halfway down the curve to normal death rates (actually slightly lower). So, 4 weeks is not at all a ridiculous timeframe. I don't personally have that point of view mostly because I look at the US regionally or state by state, I'm not really concerned with the overall picture as it doesn't really mean much data wise. It would not be out the question though for enough of the US to be over the curve that the areas that are not there yet would have little effect on the overall picture. (It's not my belief that it will happen in that timeframe but somewhat plausible)
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No, I didn't miss it. I just haven't seen any indication that we're going to see excess deaths get to near zero in four weeks.
What we are seeing is substantial new case growth, and we are beginning to see new death growth.
The UK doesn't look anything like us.