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Chief Pagan · 07-26-2020, 01:10 PM

Sweden had a lighter touch and didn't do the hard lock down like its neighbors. But they voluntarily did a lot of social distancing and even without the lock down things like restaurant dine in dropped.

They ended up with far more deaths than their neighbors. But even without locking down, their economy took almost as big as hit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/b...ronavirus.html

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133

Research from Scandinavian bank SEB in April suggested Swedes were spending at a higher rate than consumers in neighbouring Nordic nations.

Despite this, various forecasts predict the Swedish economy will still shrink by about 5% this year. That's less than other countries hit hard by Covid-19 such as Italy, Spain and the UK, but still similar to the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden's unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest in the Nordics, up from 7.1% in March.

Sweden is a small economy that is open to global trade. So some of its downturn is because the world economy downturn and not just because people were staying home.

But that is true of its Nordic neighbors. They faced the same headwind. They had the same downturn with many fewer deaths per capita.

Now it's certainly possible that Sweden may have gained some level of herd immunity. And it's economy rebounds more quickly than it's neighbors. And over the next year or so, its neighbors catch up in deaths while staying economically behind.

But I think it is more likely that none of them do that well until there is a vaccine. If a vaccine is rolled out early in 2021 every economy will bounce back. And Sweden would have had far more of its citizens die with little economic benefit.

07-26-2020, 01:10 PM	#40743
Chief Pagan Sometimes it's black and white Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: California Casino cash: $1284900	Sweden had a lighter touch and didn't do the hard lock down like its neighbors. But they voluntarily did a lot of social distancing and even without the lock down things like restaurant dine in dropped. They ended up with far more deaths than their neighbors. But even without locking down, their economy took almost as big as hit. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/b...ronavirus.html This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better. “They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133 Research from Scandinavian bank SEB in April suggested Swedes were spending at a higher rate than consumers in neighbouring Nordic nations. Despite this, various forecasts predict the Swedish economy will still shrink by about 5% this year. That's less than other countries hit hard by Covid-19 such as Italy, Spain and the UK, but still similar to the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden's unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest in the Nordics, up from 7.1% in March. Sweden is a small economy that is open to global trade. So some of its downturn is because the world economy downturn and not just because people were staying home. But that is true of its Nordic neighbors. They faced the same headwind. They had the same downturn with many fewer deaths per capita. Now it's certainly possible that Sweden may have gained some level of herd immunity. And it's economy rebounds more quickly than it's neighbors. And over the next year or so, its neighbors catch up in deaths while staying economically behind. But I think it is more likely that none of them do that well until there is a vaccine. If a vaccine is rolled out early in 2021 every economy will bounce back. And Sweden would have had far more of its citizens die with little economic benefit. __________________ Sometimes.
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