Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace
My hope is just that it'll work out to something like:
20% of people have been infected (lots of studies suggesting actual infections are 10x known cases)
40% of people are naturally immune
50% of people get the vaccine
There's a lot of overlap in those groups almost certainly, but if all of those are in the rough ballpark, I think this can get stamped out to a very small number of deaths per year from it.
The big question I have is whether we'll need to get yearly (or more often) vaccines, but that's the stuff that can be figured out if needed. Even if you have to get it quarterly (which I think is very unlikely), that's a problem that we can solve.
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This all seems reasonable. We just have to hope we get good news on the vaccine front sooner rather than later.
I like that you put the vaccine percentage at about 50%. It may prove to be a bit higher or lower, but I think it's a reasonable benchmark.