Quote:
Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan
Another 1,400 deaths in the US today. We were already over 1,000 deaths for the 7 day rolling average. I can't remember who posted that we were on track to go over 2,000 deaths a day again but they may be right.
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This a very rough analysis I did a couple weeks ago to project deaths per day by state (and total for USA). The 7DMA columns are the projected 7-day moving average of deaths per day on the date shown. So far it doesn't seem far off.
I got CFR by looking at current deaths then dividing by cases from a month before - to account for the lag between cases and deaths. 3 states at the time had 20% positivity or worse - TX/AZ/FL, and they all came in around 5% CFR using this method.
So I pegged 5% CFR to 20% positivity rate and made it proportional. IE - 10% positivity rate gets 2.5% CFR. Not super scientific obviously. But nothing really is that accurate right now.
The last column is where I set a floor of 2% CFR just to see if it would make a difference for states with very low positivity rates. It added 90 extra deaths/day. So not a huge difference.