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Originally Posted by Rain Man
The 95 percent factor was based on my running of simulations for 23 planes with 230 crew members. Of those 230 crew members, 12 survived through 25 missions, and the most of which who survived on one individual crew was four. I think that one or two actual aircraft survived, but I don't have the papers in front of me to check. Some of the crew members survived 25 missions by bailing out of a crashing plane and then joining another crew.
Our numbers may vary, though, because I'll shuffle the missions and won't fly them again in the same order and aircraft lineup.
In real terms, I think this mortality is probably somewhat accurate if the loss rates from the early days of the Air War held up. In WWII, though, the losses to German fighters over time meant that the survival rate was actually very high from early 1944 on. I guess for simulation purposes we can assume that our missions are in 1943.
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So, the twenty Chiefsplanet crews are not a squadron unto themselves. We are just 20 planes in the Allied arsenel that may fly any mission, with countless other crews. Is that correct. If I look out the window of my plane, I won't likely see Frazod in the next plane over trying to go to Denver. I might see some poor frightened unknown radio man wondering if he'll ever see his wife again and if she will ever learn to work the stick shift in the Hudson.