Thread: Chiefs Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT?
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Old 09-21-2020, 11:05 AM   #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie View Post
Long term statistical information. Utilizing a few prior drives as empirical evidence that they will fail or succeed THIS TIME is not statistically significant. It lacks sample size. I know coaches and fans like to rely on this as it is emotional and a "feeling in the gut" but it is not very relevant.
Lemme see it. Go ahead and show your work.

From anything I can see, conversion rates on 4th and 1 are historically around 70% (a little less really; around 65% but runs are nearer 70% and Lynn almost certainly would've run it).

So you're gonna take a 30% chance of effectively being dead on arrival so you can get 4 new downs 65 yards away from the end-zone knowing full well that anything less than punching the ball in for 6 leaves you with the same 'shit, Mahomes just needs to get into FG range' situation?

Your ratios are off and you're ignoring a TON of context.
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