ChiefsPlanet - View Single Post - Chiefs Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT?

Megatron96 · 09-21-2020, 12:03 PM

I just saw a video where they talked about going for it on 4th down, last week I guess. In the NFL it worked out to something like 55%. Obviously distance made a difference, but for this example we don't have to get into that. We can call it 60% or 70% if you want.

Here's the thing: it didn't take into account what team was going for it, or who they were going against, what players were on the field, who was calling the plays offensively and defensively, what the weather was like, or basically anything that would give the situation context. It was just the situation of 4th down by an average NFL team against any average NFL team, basically in a bubble.

At best that provides a kind of guideline; it's not a fact.

in reality the Chargers held the Chiefs well below their per possession scoring average for the entire game, and the field position strategy had been working for them.

Just look at the Chiefs first 7 possessions for the game:

PUNT
PUNT
PUNT
TD
PUNT
PUNT
FG

If you were Lynn, knowing that out of the Chiefs first 7 possessions, your defense had held them to two scores and 5 punts, wouldn't you feel fairly good about your defense being able to force another punt?

Offensively the Chargers run game went from averaging over 6 yards/play for most of the game, to less than 3 yards per play (I think it was right around 2) for their last three possessions in regulation. In fact, there was string of Chargers runs by Ekeler and Kelley that went for less than a yard/carry during their last three possessions. Even Herbert's runs were only averaging about 2 yards/attempt in the final quarter. Spags was figuring it out.

My point being, that situationally in that moment against this team, going for it on 4th down was suddenly not as cut and dried as "well, we have a 60% (or whatever number you want to use) chance of converting."

The situation on the field had changed, Spags had figured out how to put the brakes on their running game.

But the Chargers defensive front was still collapsing the pocket, was still winning that field position battle for the most part, excepting one crazy miracle pass and catch by Mahomes and Hill.

Situationally it was probably the right call. Based on what had occurred during the game, Lynn had about a 60-70% chance of his defense standing tall and getting his offense the ball back, or the game ending in a tie, which for the Chargers would've been almost as good as a win.

And let's be clear: I'm not saying that Anthony Lynn definitely made the right decision not going for it on 4th down in OT. I'm saying I understand why he did it, and I don't have a problem with it.

09-21-2020, 12:03 PM	#10
Megatron96 Suupraa Geniuuusss Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: North Phoenix, AZ Casino cash: $-1739600	I just saw a video where they talked about going for it on 4th down, last week I guess. In the NFL it worked out to something like 55%. Obviously distance made a difference, but for this example we don't have to get into that. We can call it 60% or 70% if you want. Here's the thing: it didn't take into account what team was going for it, or who they were going against, what players were on the field, who was calling the plays offensively and defensively, what the weather was like, or basically anything that would give the situation context. It was just the situation of 4th down by an average NFL team against any average NFL team, basically in a bubble. At best that provides a kind of guideline; it's not a fact. in reality the Chargers held the Chiefs well below their per possession scoring average for the entire game, and the field position strategy had been working for them. Just look at the Chiefs first 7 possessions for the game: PUNT PUNT PUNT TD PUNT PUNT FG If you were Lynn, knowing that out of the Chiefs first 7 possessions, your defense had held them to two scores and 5 punts, wouldn't you feel fairly good about your defense being able to force another punt? Offensively the Chargers run game went from averaging over 6 yards/play for most of the game, to less than 3 yards per play (I think it was right around 2) for their last three possessions in regulation. In fact, there was string of Chargers runs by Ekeler and Kelley that went for less than a yard/carry during their last three possessions. Even Herbert's runs were only averaging about 2 yards/attempt in the final quarter. Spags was figuring it out. My point being, that situationally in that moment against this team, going for it on 4th down was suddenly not as cut and dried as "well, we have a 60% (or whatever number you want to use) chance of converting." The situation on the field had changed, Spags had figured out how to put the brakes on their running game. But the Chargers defensive front was still collapsing the pocket, was still winning that field position battle for the most part, excepting one crazy miracle pass and catch by Mahomes and Hill. Situationally it was probably the right call. Based on what had occurred during the game, Lynn had about a 60-70% chance of his defense standing tall and getting his offense the ball back, or the game ending in a tie, which for the Chargers would've been almost as good as a win. And let's be clear: I'm not saying that Anthony Lynn definitely made the right decision not going for it on 4th down in OT. I'm saying I understand why he did it, and I don't have a problem with it.
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