Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
I hadn't seen that before. What does the math look like?
The only thing I've heard until now was that CDC believes that we have 10 times the number of confirmed cases, or ~72,000,000
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Right. But you've seen IFR #s thrown around. .6% is a conservative estimate that might be low for early in the pandemic and high now. Italy was probably over 1%.
NYC has had 23.7k deaths. Divide that by .006 you get = 3.95M people. So wow actually NYC could be at almost 50% prevalence. That's crazy.
If they were more like 1% IFR (most of the deaths early on) - then you get 2.37M people infected - about 25% of the population of NYC which seems a lot more realistic.