Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace
I didn't say it was probable. I just would prefer my coach make decisions based on maximizing win probability, and I'll take 99.99% over 99.90%.
|
Eh I don’t know.
I know we’re making up probabilities here but let’s go through it:
In order to lose going out of bounds you need the following to happen:
-Cleveland needs to Rivers the snap CLE recover
AND
-Houston to go on a 99 yard drive <:60, provided they don’t advance the recovery. If they do, a shorter drive becomes more probable, a score pretty much ends it.
Unlikely.
In order to lose scoring you need the following to happen:
-Houston to go on a 75 yard (likely) TD drive <:60
AND
-Houston recovers onside kick (which are impossible now unless your playing a short bus team like Atlanta)
AND
Houston manufactures a 50ish yard TD drive in <:60-drive 1. OR Houston manufactures at least a 30 yard drive for a Long FG in <:60-drive 1 and win in overtime.
I’d say about as likely as scenario 1.
I’ll take the points.