[Rain Man]

As I think about this, we're vaccinating the most vulnerable first, but they're also the least likely to spread it. The restrictions will not (and should not) change until the vaccines are widely distributed among the people who are active.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that we could potentially see an uptick in death and cases before they plummet, on the theory that we'd start opening back up when a minority are vaccinated, and the 5 percent "non-effectiveness" in a mobile world would be a greater risk than what people face in the restrictions.

However, if it's all going to the assisted living places, the deaths should plummet quickly before the restrictions are lifted. So I think we'll see big declines in deaths, a slight uptick in cases as the restrictions rise, and then a big drop in cases as the vaccinations become more widespread.