[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

The point was about the overall deadliness of Sars-Cov2 in the human population. Of course there will be all kinds of models where they can claim well, we did X so Y didn't happen.

But lucky for us we can have places that did not lockdown like Sweden. Applying the basics of the Imperial College predictions to Sweden, Upsalla University assumed IFR 1 percent and...

The Swedish model laid out its predicted death and hospitalization rates for competing policy scenarios in a series of graphs. According to their projections (shown below in blue), the current Swedish government’s response – if permitted to continue – would pass 40,000 deaths shortly after May 1, 2020 and continue to rise to almost 100,000 deaths by June.

The most severe of the lockdown strategies they considered was supposed to cut that number to between 10-20,000 by May 1st while preserving hospital capacity – provided that the Swedish government changed course by April 10th and imposed a policy similar to the rest of Europe. In its most optimistic scenario, the model predicted that this change would reduce total deaths from 96,000 to under 30,000 by the end of June.
https://www.aier.org/article/imperia...erous-results/

The actual number by end of June? About 5,000.

So Sweden had far less deaths than even what was supposed to happen if they did a harsh lockdown, let alone light advised measures.

So 100,000 dead predicted not only by Imperial but also Bill Gates IHME in Washington. And instead the number with no lockdown was 20 times lower.

At least you're not still falsely claiming that Imperial made that prediction.