Quote:
Originally Posted by dma0034
Hi, I'm a Bills fans and I'll answer these for you:
1. My guess is you'll see a mixture. Bills like to play zone but after that game against the Chiefs they decided to blitz more often. In Week 6 the Bills invited the run to prevent big plays. That worked perfectly as the Chiefs took the runs non-stop and the Bills never adjusted and looked dumb for doing it.
2. Well the big difference in this game will be Matt Milano will be playing. He is the Bills' best coverage LB. Now he isn't good enough to eliminate Kelce (no one is really) but my guess is in Man to Man Kelce will see Milano a lot. As far as Hill it is Tre White (this is maybe the only matchup from the Bills Defense compared to Chiefs offense that I'm not nervous about: as good as Hill is White is very good too). As far as your options: Watkins-Robinson-Hardman the speed is tricky. Bills do have some talented Safeties but outside of White it's difficult to say. Every week it seems like a CB is the worst player in the league or amazing (like Taron Johnson's pick six last week, he isn't that great but got lucky). This is where sending pressure is interesting. The Bills try to confuse teams with pressure looks and 90% play Zone. If the pressure forces a throw the Bills are normally in a good spot. If the pressure is picked up then Rivers picks you apart like it's practice. I'm not going to pretend that I know how well the Chiefs O-Line is but I can tell you the Bills D-Line is terrible (outside maybe Jerry Hughes), if the Chiefs OLine plays as well as the Colts OLine did against the Bills two weeks ago the Bills are probably losing this game by 14-20. So the Bills will bring pressure and gamble.
3. So a few things. Allen was playing with a seperated shoulder in his non-throwing arm for the weeks between Tenn-NYJ (KC was in that group). That combined with the weather (Mahomes missed some throws in that game too) made Allen look a lot worse than he is. He is completing 70% of his passes on the year and only completed about 50% that game. Allen is actually exceptional against the blitz. Hard to go man to man with the WRs the Bills have (it's not unlike the Chiefs, lots of speed) and I haven't seen a DB this year that can cover Diggs one on one. After the Chiefs game when Allen got healthy the Bills just decided to pass more often. Getting 1 or 2 yards a Rush was doing nothing for them and the pass gives you better results. So this team will pass, and pass, and pass some more. I will tell you that if there is bad weather (wind especially) the Bills offense will be terrible (you saw last week against the Ravens and the game against the Chiefs). If weather is good then the offense rolls because Allen can create some plays with his legs and, like Mahomes, has no limit on where he can throw the ball; the OLine has been better since getting their RG Ford out and they're a pretty solid Pass Blocking group.
4. The Bills can't run (except Allen). Their only way to beat the Chiefs is to make the Chiefs abaddon the run. I know it sounds crazy for you guys because the Chiefs Offense, especially Mahomes, are amazing but the Bills Defense can either: A. Stop the Run or B. Stop the Pass. They can do either very well but they can't do both. So in the Colts game; despite what the numbers would tell you the Bills held the Colts running game in check (until they changed their defense to stop the pass... then the Colts ran on them when the Bills were up by 14 in the 4th), they dared Rivers to beat them and he moved it down the field with ease. So if some how some way the Bills were to get a lead and the Chiefs just decided to throw it around I would expect the Bills to play zone and blitz.
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The only thing I'm going to say here is in regards to the two parts I highlighted.
1. If, by your estimation, Mahomes "missed some throws" the Bills are in real trouble because Mahomes was 21-26 in that game - that's an 81% completion percentage.
2. See number 1. You say they can either stop the run or stop the pass. The Bills sold out to do the latter in the first game and not only gave up 250 yards rushing, they didn't actually stop the pass. Mahomes still had that monster completion percentage, 225 yards, and 2 TD's.