[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Welcome. Nice post and thanks for answering questions. I believe you’re the first Bills fan to do so.

1) I hope Bills fans understand that when Chiefs fans hear someone say they’re going to blitz to pressure Mahomes, we get excited because of how excellent Mahomes has been against the blitz in his career. He has a career 115 rating against the blitz and has only thrown 2 picks his against it.

The Bills D in the first game IS the best approach to take against the Chiefs. Drop 7 every play. The only time that really is effective in limiting KC is if the team can generate pressure with its front four. Obviously, the Bills’ personnel is not configured to do that.

This matchup doesn’t favor Buffalo. If they can surprise Mahomes with some pressure, that will give them a chance... but that’s really, really difficult to do.

2) I understand Milano is your best coverage LB (tell that to Willie Mcginest, who apparently thinks it is Edmunds). But coverage LBs are just not factors against Kelce. Chiefs fans look at what Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox did to you round one 11 catches on 13 targets for more than 100 yards and a TD and lick our chops.

If the plan is to single cover Kelce with a LB, it isn’t going to work.

Tre White is awesome. If the Bills leave him on an island against Hill without help over the top, they will regret it.

If he follows Hill everywhere, he’s going to run around a lot more than in a normal game, too. There are a lot of CBs that didn’t have anything left in the tank in the 4th quarter because of that.

3) Allen being healthy and playing better is the biggest X-factor. I get this ... we tried to explain to Houston fans how big a factor that would be with Mahomes last year.

Despite the perception by many that the Chiefs pass D is awful, it’s actually the defensive strength. So this becomes a strength on strength matchup. I actually expect the Bills to make some plays - it sounds like Breeland and Fenton are full go’s for KC - we’ll get better insight on that today. If they are and KC has its full complement of DBs, Spagnuolo will again do some creative things defensively. They’re going to show Allen things that look familiar, or that look like one thing but are entirely different. How he handles that will go a long way in determining the final score.

4) teams that have presented normal boxes
to KC have been torn up by the KC passing attack. Dropping 5-6 into coverage against the Chiefs receiving group just isn’t a way to succeed consistently. You need both safeties deep.

Anyway, long story short (ha), the confidence in this forum on this game is about the matchup. The Bills currently don’t match up well against the Chiefs offense, and this is the best type of matchup for the Chiefs D.

I think the Bills will still make plays because of how good Allen and company are. They’re going to put up points. But I still see something like a 34-24/34-27 final the Chiefs way. A turnover that leads to an easy score for Buffalo is something that could turn the game.

It looks like your squad has a lot of cap space. I’d say spend it (or at least what’s left after extending Allen) on making your offense more balanced (I’m really hoping Najee Harris doesn’t fall to Buffalo at #30 in the draft) and making your front four more capable of creating pressure on its own. Move those matchups more in Buffalo’s favor, and let’s do this again next year (and the year after. And the year after.)

Very nice post.....covered a lot of what I said in mine (should have read down first!)