[KChiefs1]

Lots of video in the article...I'll post some interesting tidbits.

https://theathletic.com/2329129/2021...fc-title-game/

Josh Allen vs. Cover-7: What film and analytics reveal about Bills-Chiefs
by
Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen

Ten years ago, Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott. McDermott had taken over for legendary defensive coordinator Jim Johnson in Philadelphia. The Eagles went 10-6 in 2010 but lost in the wild-card round. Reid decided he wanted to make a change. But the move didn’t solve his problems. The Eagles went 12-20 over the next two seasons, Reid was fired, and he went to Kansas City. McDermott went to Carolina where he served as the defensive coordinator for six seasons before taking over as the Bills’ head coach.

On Sunday, they’ll meet at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship game. Sometimes, surprise teams make it to the final four. That’s not the case here. The Chiefs and Bills have pretty clearly been the top AFC teams over the last couple of months. They met in Week 6, with the Chiefs landing a 26-17 victory.

Is there reason to believe this game will be different? Will Reid get an opportunity to win his second straight Super Bowl? Or will the Bills’ dream season continue? We explore those questions below, using film and numbers.



When the Chiefs run the ball

Following Kansas City’s win over the Cleveland Browns last week, which included a late fourth-down conversion from Chad Henne to Tyreek Hill, Reid was asked when fourth-and-1 became a passing down.

“I went to BYU,” Reid told reporters. “Every down is a throwing down.”

Reid has never hid the fact that he is a pass-first coach. In fact, the Chiefs and Bills have been two of the three most pass-heavy teams in the league this season, Buffalo, Houston and KC.

When the two teams met in Week 6, the Bills dared the Chiefs to run the ball, and Kansas City obliged. Clyde Edwards-Helaire led the way with 26 carries for 161 yards. But it wasn’t a bad approach by McDermott. The Bills forced the Chiefs to string together long drives.

The problem is Kansas City is really good and can win in different ways. In that game, they strung together four scoring drives of 10-plus plays.

“I think you got to look at this is an explosive offense mainly through the air, so you got to pick your poison here,” McDermott told reporters after that game. “What you’re trying to take away, and then on the other end, you’re going to give a little bit. And so I’m not saying that we liked what we gave up in the run game. That said, towards the end of the game, we were in the game as opposed to some people are getting blown out because the ball is flying over their head.”

Of Kansas City’s 46 runs in that game, 31 came against five- or six-men boxes, according to Sportradar. The Chiefs did not have a single run against an eight-man box. Against six-men boxes, Edwards-Helaire ran 19 times for 142 yards (7.47 YPC).

For shotgun running teams, running back alignment can potentially be a huge tell. If the back is lined up offset to the quarterback’s right and a step or two behind him, the offense will usually run inside zone to the left because the back has to run across the quarterback to receive the handoff. Defenses will sometimes set their defense depending on which direction the running back is offset in the formation.

To counter this tell, the Chiefs will run split zone (a variant of inside zone with a block coming across the formation to block the back-side end) to the same side that the running back is offset to by having the running back first go across the quarterback to take the handoff and then redirecting.

On the season, the Chiefs’ offense ranked 13th in rushing DVOA, while the Bills’ defense ranked 17th against the run. In other words, it’s a pretty even matchup.

Edwards-Helaire has been sidelined since Week 15, and it’s unclear whether he’ll return for this game. It’s also worth noting that the Bills didn’t have one of their best defensive players, Matt Milano, in that first meeting. Buffalo’s defense ranked eighth in weighted DVOA, reflecting the fact that they were playing their best toward the end of the season.

If Chad Henne plays, the Chiefs could lean a little more on their run game. But if Mahomes is on the field, chances are that McDermott will consider it a victory every time he hands the ball off.



When the Chiefs pass the ball

Mahomes completed 21 of 26 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns the first time the two teams met. His numbers during the regular season were almost identical to last year.

Mahomes and Reid want to be aggressive and push the ball downfield. But in the first meeting, the Bills’ entire game plan focused on taking away the big play. Buffalo played some form of two-deep coverage on 19 of Mahomes’ 34 pass plays. And the Bills played just four snaps of man coverage.

Chances are Buffalo will take a similar approach in this game. So far this season, teams have had a lot more success playing two-deep coverages than single-high coverages against Mahomes.

The Bills played a lot of soft zone against the Chiefs in the first game. If they take the same approach Sunday, the secondary’s focus will be less on winning specific matchups and more on playing their zone responsibilities and tackling well to limit yards after the catch.

Up front, the Bills will likely lean on their front four. In the first game, they blitzed Mahomes just once on 34 pass plays.

The numbers suggest strongly that blitzing Mahomes is a terrible idea.

While Mahomes performed well when opponents rushed four or fewer, he absolutely shredded the blitz.

No quarterback was better.

During the regular season, the Bills ranked second in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate, while the Chiefs were sixth in pass-block win rate.



When the Bills run the ball

In the divisional round against the Ravens, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll didn’t call a designed run until Buffalo’s 20th offensive play. The Bills have been the league’s most pass-happy team this season.

With Zack Moss sidelined, the Bills will lean on Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon and Josh Allen. During the regular season, the Bills ranked 22nd in rushing DVOA. Among the 47 backs with at least 100 carries, Singletary ranked 34th, producing a positive result (EPA) just 39.7 percent of the time according to Sports Info Solutions.

The Chiefs’ run defense, however, has been even worse. Kansas City’s defensive approach is similar to Buffalo’s. Steve Spagnuolo is willing to give up some yards on the ground and instead focuses on stopping the pass. The Chiefs ranked 31st in DVOA against the run.

In the Week 6 matchup, the Chiefs gave the Bills a lot of two-high looks and dared them to run the ball, but Buffalo couldn’t make them pay. The Bills ran 23 times for 84 yards in that game. Singletary ran 10 times for 32 yards. Their backs produced just 39 yards on 10 carries against boxes with six defenders or fewer.

The Bills have struggled to run the ball from under center (11 runs for 34 yards) in the playoffs. Against the Chiefs, their best chance for success on the ground is probably with designed quarterback runs and option plays out of shotgun.




When the Bills pass the ball

A big difference between the 2019 Chiefs and the 2020 Chiefs has been their pass defense. They were seventh against the pass (DVOA) last year but fell to 16th this season. Kansas City kept Allen in check during the first meeting, as he completed 14 of 27 passes for just 122 yards.

In that game, Spagnuolo mixed up his coverages well. But the Chiefs used two-high looks on 18 of Allen’s 31 pass plays. On those plays, Allen was 8-for-15 for 74 yards, averaging 4.93 YPA.

Spagnuolo blitzed Allen 14 times and was effective. Allen produced -0.12 EPA per play against the blitz, which was his second-worst mark of the season. Overall, though, Allen has been excellent against the blitz. When opponents have sent five rushers or more, he has produced 0.31 EPA per play, which ranks second among all starters.

In all likelihood, the Chiefs will use a similar strategy to the first meeting. They’ll mix up a lot of their coverages, use pre-snap disguise and lean on a lot of split-safety zone with Spagnuolo’s blitzes mixed in. Allen will have to capitalize when he has opportunities to push the ball downfield, but overall he might have to be patient and avoid making a big game-changing mistake. His scrambling will be key when the Chiefs are in man coverage.

In Week 6, Chris Jones was disruptive inside working against backup guard Brian Winters. But the Bills didn’t have starter Jon Feliciano in that game. Since Feliciano returned in Week 8, the Bills’ offensive line has played well. Overall, the Bills ranked fourth in pass block win rate, while the Chiefs ranked 18th in pass rush win rate. Jones and Frank Clark are capable of taking games over, but on paper, the Bills should have an advantage up front.