Quote:
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic
#ZeroCOVID or #HarmReduction?
— Vinay Prasad weighs the two competing targets
by Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH February 9, 2021
Meanwhile, vaccination changes the calculus. Across all vaccine trials to date, and 65,000 vaccinated participants, there are zero hospitalizations and zero deaths. Vaccination removes the fangs from the snake. If we can successfully vaccinate adults, particularly older adults, then eradicating SARS-CoV-2 takes on less importance.
...
I struggle to think this is a realistic, feasible or practical goal for us. If you read my past columns, it should come as no surprise that I am of the school of public health that favors harm reduction. But I am curious about what you think?[/I]
https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/91123 |
Vaccination is a game changer and global eradication ain't happening.
That said:
Unfortunately, vaccinations aren't 100% effective and mutations are happening. So, the snake hasn't been completely defanged.
If the vaccine is 90~95% effective against the original version and anywhere from 50-85% effective against new versions; and you have a significant number of people under 50 that probably aren't going to get vaccinated so the virus is going to continue to spread
This means a lot of people over 80 are going to continue to die. Not as many and not as quickly as currently, which is absolutely a good thing. But it will still be a lot.
And just because somebody under 50 has already had the virus, doesn't mean they won't be able to get it a second time. This is already happening in South Africa and South America. Those that got the virus in 2020 and don't get vaccinated stand a good chance of getting a second version in 2021. Especially if they have the attitude that things are 'over' and everyone goes back to a business as usual.
And the more people both in the US and around the globe that get the virus, the more chances the virus has to mutate and come up with versions that are resistant to whatever the current vaccines are. So just because there is a vaccine available to those that want to take it, those that refuse still can effect those that want it.
Hopefully, they can roll out updated vaccines fast enough to keep up with the changes in the virus.