[mr. tegu]

I think you will see about a 50% vaccination rate at best. Those who had the virus, most likely won’t get it. Rightfully so in my opinion. Regarding everyone else, I believe that the excitement and conversation about getting the virus reduces every day. The slow roll out is a problem in this regard. For large amounts of people who won’t even have access to it until April, May, and even June, they are going to look around and see cases and deaths being pretty minimal. By then the initial surge of momentum and excitement, combined with need, about getting the vaccine will be greatly reduced.

This seems especially likely to me because these will be the younger, healthier, and or low exposure group. If the message continues to be masks social distancing even with the vaccine, what will be their motivation? On top of that if we keep hearing about a need for boosters, which are basically a nonstarter in my view in that the vast majority won’t get them, people in those last eligible groups just aren’t going to commit to something like that in large numbers.