Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
I've probably been a bit harsh on Direkshun but I have to say this...
I'll speak to finding starting-caliber players.
The hit rates suggest that taking a WR in the 2nd is as beneficial a play as taking one in the 1st. Either case is about a 50/50 proposition. By far the safest pick in round 1 is OLine but Oline is the safest pick across day 1 and 2. It just so happens to be extremely safe in round 1 and statistically, that's where you'll get a starting LT in the NFL if you want one.
The only positions that hit as badly as WR in round 1 are DL and RB. Coincidentally, CP wants either DL or WR in 1. The chances of success on either are lower than any others.
I'm not saying it's wrong, I'm just saying the odds aren't necessarily as favorable. I've always been one to shoot for the moon on talent but I've been burned badly in thinking many a 1st round receiver would be good in the NFL only to see them suck ass.
I've come to not support a 1st round receiver. If you want to hack away in the 2nd, go for it.
I support TE in the 3rd. That's the sweet spot. Any earlier and you're usually robbing yourself of more impactful positions. The only time I'd advocate a TE earlier is if you don't have a good one and there's a hell of a talent sitting there, but even then it can be fools gold. There is also a high hit rate in the 5th.
For those of you that want a LB, you absolutely shouldn't bother after the 4th round and the earlier the better.
After TE, the best position to take late swings on is DB or OL. Veach has repeatedly done so, and it has support statistically.
As for the adding weapons approach, I think the best-case scenario is to get an X and #2 TE. I think, with the state of the cap and the other holes on this team, you take shots on unrealized talent in FA and pick up a guy like John Ross. You have to face that you can't just go about an entire offseason banking on adding a bunch of weapons. If you add a WR in FA, then you're not adding at another position that you need to address in the draft. It makes it hard to allocate multiple resources to the same position. I don't know how you can think that the Chiefs should get a FA WR, and then also spend a high pick on it to go with a mid-round or something combination similar. You simply cannot allocate resources like that.
There are too many holes, not just this year but next. You have to address the offensive line. It's a must. The holes are nowhere near as bad now as they'll be next year. You have to try to knock off a couple of those now and a couple next season. Rolling with career backups as starters only work so much for so long.
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I like the precision you've put into value here but ultimately you have to let the draft come to you.
This draft has a lot of OL prospects but the fact is we might just see a bunch go before our pick.
If it is tackle and WR both valued the same I am with you on tackle.
It might not fall that way and we need to just draft really good players at
OL generally
WR
DE
LB
Let me ask you this. If tackle is that important would you consider a trade up for one?
How far up the board round 1?