I still think that the stimulus passage was already cooked into the current pricing and the bigger issue we see is the run-up on safe yields from treasuries.
Indices are dropping because TNX is rocketing up.
Valuation theory 101. All a stock is worth is its future cash flows discounted to present value. The rate for discounting is set to a 'risk-free rate', which is often set to TNX for convenience. When TNX goes up, valuations go down. It is an exponential relationship, which is why a small move in TNX can crush stocks by a lot because people can park money here risk free.
TNX could still go up to around 2.00, so there is still a lot more room to drop for many stocks based on current pricing.
It's not really a 'dip' if the fundamental valuation for equities has changed.
I still expect a drop this week, although we may have a large 1-2 green days in the mix.
|