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Don’t buy the fearmongering: The COVID-19 threat is waning
By Marty Makary

The case-fatality risk of COVID is also plummeting. That’s because a remarkable 83 percent of US seniors are now vaccinated and the virus has moved to younger, healthier people. For Americans under age 55, the case-fatality rate last month was approximately 6.5 per 10,000. Since we are now capturing as many as 1 in 4.5 infections with testing, the real-world case-fatality rate is 1 to 1.4 per 10,000, similar to influenza (1.3 per 10,000 in people under 50). And vaccines will likely provide at least some immunity against variants.

With far fewer susceptible people and a younger cohort, we’re dealing with a different risk level than even just a few months ago.

Despite this good news, Americans are being told variants and hesitancy will prevent “herd immunity.” Yet noticeably absent from their calculations is the contribution of natural immunity from prior infection or exposure. Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Rochelle Walensky simply don’t talk about the percent of Americans they estimate have natural immunity. That omission creates a perception that the race to 70 to 85 percent immunity is more desperate, resulting in a prolonged timeline, talk of vaccine mandates and an imperative that young kids get the shot.


Some experts do highlight the massive contribution of natural immunity. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration, and Dr. Monica Gandhi at the University of California are among the many who routinely point to the broad prevalence of natural immunity.

In a recent Danish study of natural immunity, only 0.6 percent of those infected ever subsequently tested positive, including asymptomatic positives. A large California study found 38 percent of the state’s population and 45 percent of Los Angeles residents had COVID-19 antibodies in February. Given the many infections since then and the immunity conferred by activated T cells even when antibodies are not detected, upward of half the population of California likely has natural immunity. And cases in California have dropped like a rock.

On a clinical level, we simply have not seen significant re-infections at any concerning rate. Any expert who talks about the path to herd immunity as a simple tally of vaccinations alone – which unfortunately is many – is ignoring data and real-world clinical experience.



https://nypost.com/2021/05/04/dont-b...eat-is-ending/