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Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage
Yeah, housing starts and jobs (horrible) had bad beats recently. GDP revisions down. The number of people reporting they couldn't work due to covid dropped from 3.7 million to 2.8. It seems like that's a good sign if it keeps up.
I don't know what'll happen with a lot of the supply/demand imbalances. Like Oil futures going sub-zero I'm sure we'll continue to see interesting stuff. They are a risk to stifling growth at too high of rates.
I guess I only see the economy beating for the next few quarters. I mean, the yoy comps are insanely low. Halfcan was implying a major economic correction. We're going to start doing worse than last year? I can't believe that, we're Jamaal Charles competing in the special olympics right now in yoy comps.
I believe in the US consumer spending. There is supposedly a ton of money trapped in checking/savings accounts. The direct monthly payments for child tax credits will start going out this summer. I can't imagine that won't get spent by a huge chunk of the population.
I find inflation to be the biggest concern. I drove home tonight listening to commercials of companies paying to advertise that they'd give $17 an hour to new entry level warehouse employees. This might be a bias, my worth is mostly in stocks, if the economy grows slower that hasn't worked so bad for me.. less so if inflation forces huge interest rate increases. 40x revs SaaS companies would freefall
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Yeah, the big key is interest rate risk. Last time the Fed suggested they might raise interest rates in a few quarters the stock market tanked. Hard. That's probably the most impactful for the discussions here.
Not that I'm disagreeing, but where are you reading that there is a lot of liquidity tied up in checking and savings accounts? My wife doesn't seem to have trouble finding places to dump my cash.
If the velocity of money were to improve that would definitely help.
The wild volatility in certain places, isn't good for anyone. That stifles a lot of healthy economic activity. FFS notorious told me plywood is more expensive than the oak he's laying down. What the holy hell? There has to be several houses that can't be built now. Surely a contractor or 500 that has went out of business on such madness. That shit needs to get un****ed post haste.