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I think it's highly unlikely Tyrann Mathieu is going to be back if an extension isn't agreed to before the regular season. Doubt anything would get done during the season and I think the Chiefs will tag Orlando Brown Jr. instead. Doubt anything gets done there either until after the season...and if it doesn't, Brown has to be tagged (assuming he isn't some major disappointment this year), which will give the Chiefs until mid-July to come to terms with him. I imagine they'll prioritize re-signing Tyreek Hill first then extend Brown after.
Would love for Mathieu to be back on a reasonable deal, but if the Chiefs let him walk, the bright side is they'll get a nice compensatory pick and combined with cutting Frank Clark's albatross of a contract and Anthony Hitchens, they'll have plenty of cap space to get some things done in free agency and to maybe re-sign guys who won't command as much cap space like Jarran Reed (especially if Chris Jones' move to defensive end on many plays works out), Derrick Nnadi, and others. And perhaps make it easier to re-sign L'Jarius Sneed in the future, and possibly someone like Juan Thornhill and/or Mecole Hardman depending on how they perform.
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