ChiefsPlanet - View Single Post - Chiefs Time to panic about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Separating fact from fiction

mr. tegu · 10-25-2021, 03:48 PM

“What is true, though, is that the Chiefs haven't turned many of their short plays into bigger gains. They used to be the kings of YAC, and they haven't been in 2021. From 2018 to '20, they averaged 6.2 yards after catch, which was the second-best mark in football. They're down to 5.3 YAC this season, which ranks 19th. Part of that relates to the passes they are throwing. The average Mahomes pass before 2021 expected to generate 5.4 YAC; this season, that's down to 4.7 YAC. Hill has been far more inconsistent with the ball in his hands; he has exceeded his expected YAC just 38.8% of the time, down from nearly 53% over the prior three seasons.

Those moments in which Mahomes seems to bend time before finding an open receiver have also fizzled out. From 2018 to '20, he averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and posted a 87.1 QBR when he held the ball for at least five seconds before throwing. On those same passes this season, he's 5 of 16 for 83 yards and two picks, good for just 5.2 yards per attempt and a QBR of 2.4.

And whether it has been Mahomes itching to make plays, the deep coverage looks, randomness or some combination of the three, the Chiefs haven't been anywhere near as effective when he does get time to throw. When he wasn't pressured over the first three years of his run, they averaged 8.9 yards per dropback, which was fourth-best in the league. This season, the seeming inevitability of a receiver getting open hasn't been an inevitability at all; they're down to 7.7 yards per dropback, which ranks 22nd in the league without pressure.”

These three paragraphs highlight to me that Mahomes is just not seeing the field well, scanning the receivers, or anticipating throws like we are used to seeing.

10-25-2021, 03:48 PM	#10
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $-1908700	Time to panic about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Separating fact from fiction “What is true, though, is that the Chiefs haven't turned many of their short plays into bigger gains. They used to be the kings of YAC, and they haven't been in 2021. From 2018 to '20, they averaged 6.2 yards after catch, which was the second-best mark in football. They're down to 5.3 YAC this season, which ranks 19th. Part of that relates to the passes they are throwing. The average Mahomes pass before 2021 expected to generate 5.4 YAC; this season, that's down to 4.7 YAC. Hill has been far more inconsistent with the ball in his hands; he has exceeded his expected YAC just 38.8% of the time, down from nearly 53% over the prior three seasons. Those moments in which Mahomes seems to bend time before finding an open receiver have also fizzled out. From 2018 to '20, he averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and posted a 87.1 QBR when he held the ball for at least five seconds before throwing. On those same passes this season, he's 5 of 16 for 83 yards and two picks, good for just 5.2 yards per attempt and a QBR of 2.4. And whether it has been Mahomes itching to make plays, the deep coverage looks, randomness or some combination of the three, the Chiefs haven't been anywhere near as effective when he does get time to throw. When he wasn't pressured over the first three years of his run, they averaged 8.9 yards per dropback, which was fourth-best in the league. This season, the seeming inevitability of a receiver getting open hasn't been an inevitability at all; they're down to 7.7 yards per dropback, which ranks 22nd in the league without pressure.” These three paragraphs highlight to me that Mahomes is just not seeing the field well, scanning the receivers, or anticipating throws like we are used to seeing.
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