Quote:
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88
You have to consider the current dynamics in the game though... the Chiefs defense was getting shredded by the Bengals, having just given up a 3rd and 27 conversion AND the refs were calling a ridiculously tight game in terms of defensive penalties.
Given those two dynamics, the probability of the Chiefs holding the Bengals to 3 and still leaving enough time for Mahomes to respond was not good.
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The current dynamics? No, it's simple mathematics. The only way KC doesn't get the ball back with 50 seconds left is if the Bengals get a 1st and goal from the 1 after the 2-minute warning when playing from the 11. A team is going to try to operate for the TD there 10/10 times and has nearly the same scoring probability as if they were operating from the 10. The likelihood that they get a 1st and goal from the 1 is relatively low because of the situation and yards to goal.
Here's an article that literally talks about it from a similar perspective with better data than I want to regurgitate:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...downs-red-zone
Granted, if the Bengals did get a 1st and goal relatively quickly after the 2-minute warning, then there is a ton of credence to letting them score so you at least have time to try and tie because you'll otherwise lose anyhow. That simply wasn't the case at any point the way things went down, and they couldn't have went any better for Reid's decision sans the back-to-back penalties that completely ****ed the Chiefs.