Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief
So, a few things:
1. I don't know how to track the line and don't know its normal volatility. Are you able to provide a day-by-day line so we can see what it was doing throughout the week? And what is normal throughout the season in betting lines?
2. When was it announced to the public that the refs were being changed?
3. Where there any other developments around the time of the announcement?
I can't really comment on that before you provide me with 1/ and 2/ (and if you can't provide those, then I can't give you an informed answer).
But assuming you are correct and the line changed the day that the announcement was made, one could chalk it up to pure randomness (hence, need to see the normal line volatility) OR there could be a lot of people out there like you and BlackOp that see a replacement crew and infer that the fix is in.
Correlation need not equal causation here.
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As someone who bets semi-regularly, it's not odd at all for lines to change on gameday for a multitude of reasons.
Usually it's because the book is trying to level things out to limit potential losses, which is Occams Razor in this case.