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Those stats just seem faulty/not team specific especially the San Francisco game even though San Francisco had a very good defense, Chiefs still had explosive offense and turnovers by San Francisco always a possibility.
Against Bills given how good Chiefs offense was and how gassed Bills defense was with 13 seconds left, in game win percentage should probably only gone down to at worst 7-8%. Bills played those two last plays before FG horribly but coaching mistakes are always a possibility. But even with good coaching by Bills, Chiefs still had 2 plays to get into FG range and could have still made it.
I'd estimate 22% chance at getting into FG range given Chiefs had plenty of timeouts. (Once Chiefs had ball at 25 yard line, I'd estimate they had more than a 22% chance to get in range of a 62 yard or less FG but you don't know if Bills kicker does a long kickoff to the 5 yard line kind of really messing with Chiefs by taking time off clock on return.
So, lets say 75% shot at making the FG...obviously changes based upon distance. 55% shot at winning in OT if Chiefs hit a FG which changes based upon coin flip which Chiefs won. But also slight chance of winning in regulation on blown coverage.
And even under the scenario where Mahomes just gets 10-12 yards on one of the two plays the Chiefs had time to run, he would still have had the arm strength to throw a hail mary into the end zone to win the game outright without the need for overtime. Now I don't think Chiefs have the best Hail Mary receivers but Reid may be able to design something up to utilize KC's speed at wideout. I would give that hail mary pass alone a 6-7% chance of success via either catch of pass interference. A quick search says 9% of Haily Mary's have succeeded in the NFL...that seems high so I estimated lower there especially since Chiefs best receivers are not tall.
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