Quote:
Originally Posted by kcbubb
This is legitimate opinion but it’s all about probability or likelihood of success. Of course you can get a tyreek in the 5th, once every 10 years. But if you go back and look at drafts most of these picks are jags or busts and then a DK Metcalf hits big. That’s why so many of us are pounding the table for jameson bc his burst, change of direction and top end speed pop of the screen. You can see the fit with mahomes and the success of Bama wrs in the past with the training they have at bama and reasonable predict with a high probability that jameson is the next Dk metcalf kind of player from a production stand point for the chiefs.
Pickens on the other hand, just as a comparison, is not a good route runner, undisciplined and unpredictable, makes slow cuts, he has speed but it’s build up speed as a long strider and doesn’t have that turbo button to create separation. It’s hard for me to predict the same kind of success with Pickens. Could it happen, of course, but just trying to predict the highest likelihood. Jameson had 1600 yards and 15 tds in the sec for a reason. He’s electric and a great fit for the offense.
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It's not really an opinion though. I just showed you in another thread some recent history of the hit rate in the 2nd being near identical to the first round for good receivers. It's a bad strategy to go up and get a WR just to get one in the 1st round. If a guy falls to you that you like, go ahead and take him. If one doesn't, you have a couple of shots in the 2nd as well. This is a pretty nice draft overall for WRs.
I'd say I'm 100% against the Chiefs moving up for a WR in the 1st if it costs more than a 3rd round pick and I would absolutely not do it for an injured player. WR is one of the highest bust positions in the draft. If you're going up for a guy, you better be as certain as you possibly can about the guy. An ACL tear brings an awful lot of uncertainty into the equation. You're far better having those 2 darts to throw at the position in all honesty. At least you have the opportunity to hedge your bets.