Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Yeah - he was a great player. With similar measurables to Watson who produced at a similar clip with a much higher level of competition.
But he's on the skinny end of Watson's bell curve of potential outcomes, IMO. That's not the middle 50% for him at all. I would put it maybe at the top 15% of possible outcomes. I wouldn't even put this 'generational talent' stuff as 1% likely.
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Here's the thing, though:
You keep knocking Watson's production, and I get it. But the context of the situation is thus:
Over the past 10 seasons:
NDSU has
run the ball
6,499 times for 39,968 yards. They have
thrown the ball
3,068 times for 25,629 yards.
That's a
68 percent run rate. They average almost 6 yards a pop over that span, so you see why they stick with it.
Looking back, starting in 2014, you start seeing a slight decrease in the number of times they throw the ball. From
36% in 2012-13 to
27% this past year. They WERE a run-heavy scheme to start and have skewed even more strongly in that direction.
This isn't about Watson not dominating or the coaches not trusting him. It's about an
absolute powerhouse with a clear, long-standing, and absolutely successful system sticking with that system regardless of personnel.
If the Bison had thrown the ball at the same rate in 2021 as they did at the start of this period (36%) and succeeded at the same rate, you'd roughly expect Watson's numbers to be in the 1200 yard, 11-12 TD range.
And shoot, running the same exercise and using, say, the run-pass balance of Ohio State against it... that's 54 percent passes. You're looking at 1600 yards and 14 TDs.
I think Watson's production is a red herring when it comes to evaluating him. Lot of words for me to get to that thesis, but there it is.