Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.
He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.
In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.
So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.
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Yeah, Watson/Tolbert is usually the exact discussion I have with myself as well.
And then right there in between the two you have Alec Pierce who is a weird hybrid of the two. More athletic than Tolbert, more polished than Watson.
But I think THAT'S the tier these guys are all in. Late 2nd, early 3rd considerations. And at that point it's just a question of choosing what flavor of ice cream you're after there.
What I've taken exception to is the willingness to hand-waive the floor, move straight to the ceiling and say "well because Watson is so athletic his ceiling is higher and as such he's an obviously better prospect than those guys..."
I just don't think ceiling is the only thing that you should be considering here. There's a real possibility the guy goes Matt Jones on you and never does anything worthwhile in this league. And when taking that into consideration, he's more of a late 2nd into the 3rd round caliber pick for me who, for the Chiefs anyway, would be behind someone like Tolbert and Pierce.
I'm fine letting our generational QB take good players and make them great.