[The Franchise]

Here's 6-10.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/articl...rofiles-part-2

6) Chris Olave, Ohio State

Spoiler!

At a glance:
Olave is slightly undersized at 6 foot, 187 pounds but profiles as a classic outside deep threat, and his ability to challenge deep should translate with 4.39 speed. Olave lacks ideal career production over his four seasons but was highly efficient as an underclassman. He's a 1st-round lock.

Statistical Comps:
Santonio Holmes
Emmanuel Sanders
DeVonta Smith


Anthony Gonzalez
Devin Smith
Corey Coleman

Positive Indicators:
Underclassman breakout - Olave broke out as a true junior in 2020 with a 37% yardage share and a 32% TD share for a 34% dominator rating (average of yardage share and TD share).

Played with other talented wide receivers - Olave was the most experienced wide receiver of Ohio State's talented class. However, he still had to compete with Garrett Wilson for targets for two seasons. He also had to deal with Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 2021 emergence, and he helped keep Jameson Williams on the bench in 2020. It's safe to assume that his share of the offense would have been higher on a less loaded depth chart.

Underclassman yards per route run - Over his first three seasons at Ohio State, Olave averaged 3.17 YPRR, the second-best underclassman mark in the 2022 class behind only Justyn Ross. Since 2019, the only other drafted wide receivers with an early-career YPRR of 3+ are Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Tylan Wallace.

Olave also had two outstandingly efficient underclassman seasons with 3.38 YPRR as a sophomore and 3.33 YPRR as a junior. He was also far more efficient than his teammates' average in those seasons. So while it's a red flag that Olave stayed in school for four years, it's not clear that he needed that extra season to earn first-round draft capital.

Downfield ability - NFL teams won't have to think too hard about how to deploy Olave. He had a 15.5 career aDOT, and 72% of his yardage came on targets 10+ yards downfield.

Intermediate ability - In his peak 2020 season, Olave's aDOT was 12.9, the shallowest of his career. Olave also produced 32% of his career yards on targets 10-19 yards downfield, the same percentage as Jerry Jeudy. Olave should see plenty of work as a field stretcher, but he's unlikely to be a purely one-dimensional deep threat.

Speed - Olave ran a 4.39 40, which should help his chances of converting his downfield ability to the NFL game.

Red Flags:
Four-year player. Wide receivers who turn pro when just three seasons removed from high school have much stronger track records than 4+ year players.

Disappointing final season - Olave underwhelmed in his final season, delivering a 22% yardage share and 33% TD share for a 28% dominator rating. His slump is understandable given that he had to compete for targets with Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That said, Olave was a senior in 2021 while Wilson was a junior and Smith-Njigba was just a sophomore. Olave's final season looks like a red flag considering his experience level.

Only one dominant season - Olave only hit the breakout threshold as a junior. He had just a 10% dominator rating as a freshman, and he was productive as a sophomore but fell short of a breakout season with a 25% DR. But this is a minor red flag. Given that Olave's best season in YPRR came as a sophomore, it would be unfair to characterize his junior season as his only impressive campaign.

Career yardage share - Olave has a 23% career yardage share, which is concerningly low for a four-year player. Olave's yardage share puts him in a scary group of 4+ year college players even factoring in high draft capital. Low career production was a red flag for busts like Greg Little, Aaron Dobson, Phillip Dorsett, John Ross, and Dante Pettis. It also showed up as a red flag for players who have decidedly underperformed their draft position like Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Williams (Clemson/Chargers), and Van Jefferson. However, some players have overcome this red flag in a big way, with notable recent examples in Michael Thomas, Terry McLaurin, and Chase Claypool.

Final season yards per route run - Olave's YPRR dropped to 2.29 in 2021, making him significantly less efficient than Wilson (3.00) and Smith-Njigba (4.01). If his underclassman teammates are as good as expected, Olave's target competition is about to get easier at the NFL level. Still, it's not a great sign that his efficiency significantly dropped in his senior season along with his production.

Outlook:
Olave is a professional wide receiver and has a deep-threat role waiting for him in the NFL. However, as a four-year player with somewhat inconsistent production and efficiency, Olave's ceiling doesn't look quite as high as others in the class. There's only so far you want to take "low ceiling" analysis, though. Justin Jefferson was viewed as a safe but lower ceiling pick in the 2020 class. Jefferson is a reminder that we often just need to get these picks right at a macro level because we can rarely pinpoint the exact ceiling of a high-level receiver. When a wide receiver hits, the upside is often higher than anyone predicted. Still, Olave doesn't check all the boxes the way Jefferson did or his teammate Garrett Wilson does. He's a four-year player who disappointed in terms of career production and whose efficiency tailed off as a senior. Olave's profile indicates the potential to become a capable real-life player who won't make a huge impact in fantasy. Then again, in the right offense, he could emerge as a peak Emmanuel Sanders-level fantasy producer.

Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st

7) George Pickens, Georgia

Spoiler!

At a glance:
At 6 foot 3, 195 pounds, Pickens is a classic outside deep threat. He excelled as a freshman, disappointed as a sophomore, and then tore his ACL before his junior season. He managed to play in four games in 2021, but his routes were severely curtailed, and the season essentially served as evidence that he was healthy. After running a 4.47 40 at the Combine, Pickens looks locked in as a Day 2 pick with an outside chance to go first round.

Statistical Comps:
Sidney Rice
Jeremy Maclin
Will Fuller


Chad Jackson
Justin Hunter
Terrace Marshall


Positive Indicators:
Age - Pickens turned 21 on March 4th and will play his entire rookie season at 21 years old, which is a strong signal for his chances of becoming a fantasy difference-maker.

Declared early.

True freshman breakout - Pickens was a five-star prospect who produced immediately in the SEC with 49 receptions for 727 yards and eight TDs as a true freshman. He delivered a rare freshman breakout with a 30% dominator rating and looked destined to be a first-round draft pick.

Yards per route run - Pickens was highly efficient as a freshman, delivering 2.64 YPRR while his teammates combined for 1.32 YPRR. However, he fell off in 2020 with just 1.93 YPRR. Pickens then tore his ACL in the spring. He returned for the 2021 season but ran just 32 routes in four games. For what it's worth, Pickens was extremely efficient in that sample with 3.34 YPRR. Ultimately, his curtailed final season doesn't add much to our understanding of his skill level, but hopefully it's a sign that he's well on his way to a 100% recovery from his knee injury.

Downfield ability - Pickens has a 15.4 career aDOT, and his aDOT was at least 15.0 in all three of his seasons. He also never topped 11% of his snaps in the slot in any season. Pickens will play outside, will run deep... and will get targets.

At his 2019 production peak, 34% of Pickens' targets were 20+ yards downfield. That college season, Gabriel Davis was at 32%, Darnell Mooney was at 31%, and Chase Claypool was at 28%. Pickens' deep target rate fell to 26% in 2020, but for his career, Pickens still produced 70% of his yardage on targets 10+ yards downfield. He profiles as a clear outside deep threat as a pro.

Athleticism - Pickens turned in a 4.47 40 at the Combine with a 125-inch broad jump. His 33-inch vertical is a minor red flag, but he slightly improved to 34.5 inches at his Pro Day. Overall, Pickens answered questions positively with his Combine workout, which was less than one year removed from his ACL tear.

Red Flags:
Injury - Pickens' ACL tear in the spring of 2021 cost him a genuine junior season and makes his profile more difficult to evaluate. Technically he has a 22% career yardage share, but that's with four games in 2021 that should be thrown out because he totaled just 32 routes. That brings his yardage share up to 25%, which still probably understates what he would have done in a healthy three-year career. Then again, we don't know that for sure, and his injury will likely cost him draft position and potentially affect his play. Essentially, we can't trust Pickens' analytical profile as much as usual, making him more of a boom/bust bet.

Weight - At just over 6 foot 3, Pickens is a bit slender at 195 pounds. He may be significantly faster than his 4.47 40 once fully healthy, but if not, he won't be able to beat defenders downfield with pure speed. He may need to bulk up a bit to play effectively on the outside.

Yardage share - Pickens was a strong TD producer at Georgia, delivering 33% and 35% TD shares in his two healthy seasons. But his yardage shares weren't quite as impressive at 26% and 23%. The best part of Pickens' prospect profile is his freshman breakout, but that breakout looks less impressive once realizing his 33% TD share was doing most of the work. Of course, we want receivers who can score TDs at the NFL level. But TD scoring is volatile, and Pickens' prospect profile is heavily reliant on his early career TDs.

Raw Stats - Pickens' profile is even more concerning when you realize he even didn't score that many TDs. While yardage share and TD share are preferable to raw stats in most instances, things can get skewed at the margins. For example, Ja'Marr Chase had a 34% TD share as a sophomore, with Pickens at 35%. But Chase hit his mark on the back of 20 TDs in 14 games; Pickens scored just six TDs in eight games. Even in Pickens' freshman breakout, he and just eight TDs in 12 games. His yardage totals were similarly unimpressive, with 727 yards in 2019 and 513 in 2020. We don't want to penalize Pickens too much here. College offenses vary widely in their willingness and ability to throw the ball. But because we already have concerns about Pickens' thin resume, it's troubling that it's also built on weak raw stats.

Outlook:
Pickens is a classic boom/bust prospect. In some ways, he looks very similar to Terrace Marshall, who also had a small sample of excellence and a career-high of just 731 yards. But it's important to keep an open mind on prospects like Pickens. With a similarly concerningly TD-dependent profile, Tee Higgins was 2020's clearest boom/bust selection. Through his first two seasons, Pickens' 25% yardage share was comfortably ahead of Higgins' 23% career yardage share. If Pickens were healthy for his final season, we could be dreaming of a similar ceiling outcome. With the potential to emerge as a skinnier, faster Higgins or disappoint as thoroughly as Marshall, Pickens arguably has one of the widest range of outcomes in the class.

Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st

8) David Bell, Purdue

Spoiler!

At a glance:
Bell is 6 foot 1, 212 pounds, and played on the outside on 88% of his career snaps. However, most of his production came on shallow targets. After a subpar showing at the Combine, he looks like a big slot receiver at the NFL level. Post-combine, he also looks likely to fall to the third round.

Statistical Comps:
Robert Woods
Keenan Allen
Jarvis Landry
JuJu Smith-Schuster


Rueben Randle
Mohamed Sanu
Donte Moncrief
N'Keal Harry

Positive Indicators:
Age - Bell will play nearly his entire rookie season at 21 years old. He turns 22 in December.

Declared early.

Underclassman breakout - In six games in 2020, Bell recorded 53 receptions for 625 yards and eight TDs. That was good for a 34% yardage share, a 53% TD share, and a 44% dominator rating. During this breakout season, Bell had just two receiving yards behind the line of scrimmage and just three yards on screen passes. In other words, his sophomore mega-breakout was not manufactured; at just 19 years old, Bell was carrying Purdue's offense as a traditional wide receiver.

Career yardage share - Bell had a 28% yardage share as a freshman, and a 34% yardage share as a junior, giving him a 31% career yardage share. This is a very strong showing for a three-year wide receiver. Bell wasn't as impressive as a TD scorer but finished with a solid 29% career TD share and a 30% career dominator rating.

Final season yards per route run - Bell was highly efficient as a junior, finishing with 2.70 YPRR with his teammates combining for 1.33 YPRR.

Separation - Bell saw 24 deep targets in 2021 and only seven of those were contested. Overall, only 26 of his 134 targets were contested. As we'll get to, Bell was likely fed targets in 2021 because he was the best option on a bad offense, but Bell was still able to draw open targets.

Red Flags:
YPT - Bell's career yards per target of 8.7 is concerningly low. Even in 2021, when he impressed in YPRR, he had an unimpressive YPT of 9.5. Per-target inefficiency has been a red flag for highly drafted prospects such as Curtis Samuel, Zay Jones, Dante Pettis, N'Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims, Van Jefferson, and Rondale Moore.

Purdue fed Bell targets, but that may say more about Purdue than Bell. Then again, only 5% of Bell's career yards came on screens, and only 5% on behind the line of scrimmage targets. So while it's possible that he only dominated targets because of a lack of better options, it's also possible Bell's YPT was held down by overall passing game inefficiency and a lack of schemed targets. And receivers also overcome poor college YPT. Kenny Golladay, D.J. Moore, and Calvin Ridley had similar career YPT to Bell.

Hands - Bell's hands are fairly small at 9.25 inches, which won't help his YPT ability improve in the pros. Bell also had just a 46% career contested catch rate. Bell is likely to be frustratingly inefficient in contested catch situations, but that's never been his game, with contested-catch targets making up just 3% of his career target total.

Athleticism - Bell didn't completely bomb the Combine... but he came close. Bell's 4.65 40 is a genuine red flag for a 212-pound wide receiver. And his 32-inch vertical and 118-inch broad jump are a sign of below-average explosion. Below-average NFL athletes have been highly successful NFL wide receivers, including:

Robert Woods
4.51 40
33.5-inch vertical
117-inch broad
Jarvis Landry
4.77 40
31.5-inch vertical
113-inch broad
JuJu Smith-Schuster
4.54 40
32.5-inch vertical
120-inch broad
Calvin Ridley
4.43-inch vertical
31-inch vertical
110-inch broad
Cooper Kupp
4.62 40
31-inch vertical
116-inch broad
If Bell is skilled enough to overcome his athleticism, his production profile indicates that his PPR ceiling is still very high. But Bell's poor testing most definitely lowers his chances of hitting at the NFL level and significantly lowers his floor. And Bell used his Pro Day to remove any doubt that he is a below-average NFL athlete, running a 4.71 40; his Combine workout may have been a good day.

Production on shallow targets - Bell produced 37% of his yardage on targets between 0-9 yards downfield, the highest among this year's receivers with Day 1-2 expectations. That's not necessarily a huge red flag, but it reinforces the idea that Bell will operate as more of an underneath receiver in the NFL. As a result, he's likely to be more dependent on offensive passing volume and good quarterback play than other receivers in the class.

Target competition - Bell dominated targets at Purdue, but there often wasn't a reliable option other than Bell in the Purdue offense when Bell was on the field. Bell did overlap with Rondale Moore, but they played together in just seven games over two seasons. And when they did play together, it had an impact. Bell averaged 78 yards in his seven games with Moore; he averaged 101 yards per game in his other 11 games from 2019-20.

Small sample size breakout season - Bell's 2020 breakout came on a sample of just six games. That's not as bad as it sounds; his production was strong enough that he could have logged a seventh game without a single target and still had a breakout season. Nonetheless, his lack of a 2021 follow-up breakout isn't ideal. 2021 wasn't a total bust -- he impressed with a 34% yardage share -- but a 21% TD share held him to a sub-breakout 27% dominator rating.

Outlook:
Bell looks like a specific type of player: an underneath receiver with plus size. We've seen some elite fantasy seasons from this player archetype, even among players who are not strong NFL athletes. We've also seen players in this mold quickly wash out of the league. Bell looks like a boom/bust bet who could emerge as a PRR star if he lands in the right offense and proves adept enough at getting open against NFL coverages.

Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st

9) Christian Watson, North Dakota State

Spoiler!

At a glance:
Watson is an elite athlete with plus size at 6 foot 4, 208 pounds. He operated as a deep threat at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State and was dominant in his final season. However, Watson is quite old for a rookie, is considered very raw by scouts, and has level-of-competition red flags. Regardless, he has been a big pre-draft riser among NFL evaluators and has a realistic chance of going in the first round, with a Day 2 selection looking assured.

Statistical Comps:
Marvin Jones
Terry McLaurin
D.J. Chark
Darius Slayton


Leonard Hankerson
Chris Conley
Miles Boykin
Denzel Mims

Positive Indicators:
Dominant final season - Watson was terrific in his final college season, delivering a 42% yardage share and a 39% TD share for a 41% dominator rating.

Final Season Yards per route run - Watson's 2021 efficiency was off the charts at 4.33 YPRR.

Yards per target - Watson's career 11.9 YPT is the second-highest in the class behind only Jameson Williams. He was electric when targeted.

Hands - Watson has 10.13-inch hands, which are some of the largest in the class, and should help him translate his per-target efficiency. Blair Andrews has shown that hand size appears to make an impact for wide receivers beyond what we'd expect based on draft position alone.

Downfield ability - Watson's 15.6 aDOT is the highest among the wide receivers who look locked into Day 1-2, edging out Chris Olave (15.5) and George Pickens (15.4). Moreover, 51% of Watson's career yardage came on targets 20+ yards downfield. That's not quite at D.J. Chark's (60%) level but above other raw deep threats like Terry McLaurin (45%) and second to Alec Pierce (54%) among 2022's potential Day 1-2 receivers.

Athleticism - At 6 foot 4, 208 pounds, Watson ran a 4.36 40 and posted a 136-inch broad jump and 38.5-inch vertical. Even if all Watson can do as a rookie is run down the field in a straight line... that might work.

Special Teams ability - Watson averaged 27 yards per return on 26 career kickoff attempts and scored two TDs. This speaks well of his ability to deliver on-field athleticism that matches his Combine numbers.

Rushing ability - Watson also has 230 career rushing yards, bolstering his playmaker resume.

Red Flags:
Age - Watson will turn 23 shortly after the NFL draft. He's quite old for a rookie.

Five-year player - Watson is a redshirt senior.

Did not break out as an underclassman - Watson didn't hit the 30% breakout threshold until his fifth season after graduating high school. That's... not great. It's particularly concerning because Watson was playing on a powerhouse team in the FCS. It seems likely that a future NFL star would have been able to emerge years earlier in that environment.

Career yardage share - Watson's 24% yardage share is quite low for a fifth-year senior. This is extra concerning because Watson redshirted in his true freshman year. As a result, he was older than his classmates in all four college seasons.

Underclassman Yards per route run - Watson played two seasons in his first three years after graduating high school, averaging 2.38 YPRR, which is a respectable mark. But Watson played for a very strong FCS program, and his teammates weren't far behind. In 2019 North Dakota State supported three wide receivers with 2.45 YPRR or better on 100+ routes: Phoenix Sproles (2.45), Christian Watson (2.86), and Jimmy Kepouros (2.92). The fact that you've never heard of Sproles or Kepouros is the point. Of course, Watson did have a highly drafted teammate, but it was his quarterback, not a fellow receiver. Trey Lance's 2019 campaign is what propelled him to the third overall pick in the draft; Watson didn't display eye-opening efficiency until two years later.

Intermediate production - Watson produced just 19% of his yards on targets between 10-19 yards downfield. Having produced 51% of his yards on 20+ yard targets and having the frame and athleticism to operate deep in the NFL, his lack of intermediate production isn't a major issue. But he really might spend his rookie year only running go routes.

Outlook:
Watson projects as a deep threat who should also see some screens and handoffs as his team looks to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Schemed touches should help keep him involved, and his deep ball skills should keep him on the field. As Jalen Guyton has proved with his 14.3 career aDOT, 0.94 career YPRR, and 1,025 career routes, the ability to draw even the occasional deep target can be enough to keep a player in a near every-route role, and Watson has the potential to be quite a bit more than Guyton. As one of the biggest pre-draft risers, Watson now has a chance to sneak into the first round, and it would be somewhat shocking if he falls to the third round. With that kind of draft capital, he should get a shot at an immediate starting role. Still, Watson is the type of prospect where it's essential to try to keep the draft cost low in fantasy. We've seen many examples of highly athletic deep threats, such as Chris Conley and Miles Boykin, who have not been able to break through as fantasy-relevant receivers. Watson has major red flags in terms of his early career production and level of competition. It's possible he's the next Terry McLaurin, but it's also possible he's the next Denzel Mims.

Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 2nd Round

10) Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama

Spoiler!

At a glance:
Tolbert weighed in at 6 foot 1, 194 pounds, and quietly checked the boxes at the Combine. He now looks well-positioned for a third-round selection, which would make him very intriguing as a highly productive four-year player. Tolbert profiles primarily as an outside deep threat, but he should have the ability to mix into the slot.

Statistical Comps:
Tyler Lockett
Torrey Smith
Michael Gallup


Quinton Patton
Justin Hardy
Anthony Miller

Positive Indicators:
Underclassman breakout - Tolbert broke out in 2019 as a redshirt sophomore. His raw stats weren't impressive; in 12 games, he produced just 27 receptions for 521 yards and six TDs. But South Alabama had a very unproductive passing offense that season, and Tolbert's receiving line was good for a 27% yardage share, a 43% TD share, and a 35% dominator rating.

Career yardage share - Tolbert redshirted and then had just 60 receiving yards as a freshman, but once he got going, he had an impressive career. In his 2020 campaign, he went 64-1,086-8 for a 40% yardage share and 44% TD share. He then closed out his career with 82-1,474-8 for a 48% yardage share and 36% TD share. Over four seasons, Tolbert produced an impressive 36% yardage share and 36% dominator rating, which are excellent marks, even for a fifth-year senior.

Dominant final season - As a redshirt senior, Tolbert delivered an extremely impressive 42% dominator rating, his second straight season at 42%. Ideally, Tolbert would have entered the NFL after his third or fourth year since graduating high school. But if a player is going to spend extra time in college, late-career dominance is always preferred.

Final season yards per route run - Tolbert was impressively efficient as a redshirt junior, finishing with 2.80 YPRR. But he took things to another level in 2021. As a redshirt senior, Tolbert averaged 3.16 YPRR. His South Alabama teammates combined for a pitiful 0.96 YPRR.

Versatility - Tolbert operated almost exclusively outside in 2018-2020, but in 2021 he played 34% of his snaps from the slot. His versatility provides him with multiple avenues to see playing time as a rookie.

Downfield ability - In Tolbert's breakout 2019, he was a true deep threat with an aDOT of 17.9, seeing 38% of his targets 20+ yards downfield. He then managed a 42% dominator rating with a 17.1 aDOT in 2020 and led the nation with 39 deep targets. In 2021, his aDOT was down to 14.2, but he still finished fourth in the nation with 37 deep targets.

Tolbert didn't just see downfield targets; he produced on them. 45% of Tolbert's career yards came on 20+ yard targets, tying Treylon Burks and trailing only Christian Watson (51%) and Alec Pierce (54%) among likely Day 1-2 receivers. His NFL role isn't hard to project, provided he has the athleticism to win deep.

Athleticism - Tolbert isn't a particularly strong athlete, but he did what he needed to at the Combine with a 4.49 40, a 123-inch broad jump, and a 36-inch vertical. He probably needs to bulk up slightly from 194 pounds, but he had a solid chance of succeeding as a deep threat.

Hands - Tolbert's hands measured 10 inches, which is a good sign for his ability to translate to the NFL.

Red Flags:
Age - Tolbert is already 23 years old.

Five-year player.

Underclassman Yards per route run - Tolbert's breakout redshirt sophomore season came with subpar efficiency, delivering just 1.93 YPRR. In the two seasons he played within three years of graduating high school, he had just 1.70 YPRR. His final season efficiency is impressive, but he was a fifth-year receiver at a small school. His inability to efficiently best his level of competition until he had an advantage in age and experience is a red flag. This concern showed up for other senior wide receivers like Tre'Quan Smith, Dante Pettis, Andy Isabella, Miles Boykin, Van Jefferson, Bryan Edwards, and Devin Duvernay. However, it's a red flag that Terry McLaurin and Chase Claypool overcame.

Raw speed - Tolbert's 4.49 40 is fine for a 6-foot-1, 194-pound wide receiver, but it doesn't leave a ton of margin for error for a player whose most straightforward path to relevance is running deep routes.

Outlook:
For Tolbert to succeed, he first needs a team to take a chance on him on Day 2. As a Day 3 pick, he looks a little too close to Tylan Wallace or a smaller Antonio Gandy-Golden for comfort. But as a third-round pick, he looks far more interesting. Since 2012, six 4+ year college receivers have been selected in the third round with a 33%+ career yardage share: T.Y. Hilton, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Leonte Carroo, Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, and Michael Gallup. And three of those players, Brown (6), Golladay (5), and Kupp (5), spent more than four years in school. As long as the NFL signs off on Tolbert in Day 2, he profiles as a high upside bet.

Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 2nd Round