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kccrow · 04-03-2022, 02:33 PM

I agree that it's developing the logic behind the programming that is going to be the bear of a task. Alot of rambling here so hope I can make some sense...

First off, you have team needs. GMs don't operate with the now current team's needs in mind only, they look out for at least a year and sometimes more. And just because a team is perceived to have strength, doesn't mean they won't add to it. It's not like the Bengals had a bad WR group with Boyd and Higgins when they drafted Chase.

Then, not only do you have to create a grade/value for each player but you have the added task of determining an appropriate range for any player's value. You could use tiers, but those tiers move with each draft.
First, the grades. There are only so many boards that go 300 players deep and they usually aren't the better ones, and even then which ones actually provide a "grade" or "value" outside of NFL.com? You'll need some type of value. You then have to ask how much of that value is being created by athleticism that could be present in a modifier like RAS and how much is actually due to performance. I feel as though you need to develop a RPS (relative performance score) that gets mulitplied by RAS to create a value that's actually independent of subjective analysis. Speaking of RAS, you have your over-drafted workout warriors every year. Is there more weight to RAS than to RPS?
If you do slot these into tiers, one problem is that there may not be any tier 1 players in the 2022 draft but there will be in the 2023 draft. You have more tier 2 and 3 players though, which push 4's down, etc. You can account for that, but what happens with the chance that a GM reaches down a tier or two and takes a guy that makes everyone go "WHAT?" And then, how do you establish the tiers (value breakpoints)?
Even if you managed to nail down how you want to assign grades and tiers, how are you going to account for positional value and team scheme? Some players may fit a 3-4 defense only, some a 4-3 only, and others both. Some receivers can only play the slot, some the Z, some the X, some any. Some teams only like big running backs. You get the point. You get all these "caveats" that are difficult to put into a matrix. These are likely team-by-team coefficients in your algorithm.

You certainly have a large task to create a database that houses all the information related to the player variables. To get an algorithm that is all-encompassing, it will need to first reference another database that extracts your team-by-team coefficients. It's going to take alot of thought and work.

I think it's a more beneficial project if you attack it trying to create your own AI Mel Kiper than it is to try to use Mel Kiper(s) to create your AI.

04-03-2022, 02:33 PM	#9
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $-1240000	I agree that it's developing the logic behind the programming that is going to be the bear of a task. Alot of rambling here so hope I can make some sense... First off, you have team needs. GMs don't operate with the now current team's needs in mind only, they look out for at least a year and sometimes more. And just because a team is perceived to have strength, doesn't mean they won't add to it. It's not like the Bengals had a bad WR group with Boyd and Higgins when they drafted Chase. Then, not only do you have to create a grade/value for each player but you have the added task of determining an appropriate range for any player's value. You could use tiers, but those tiers move with each draft. First, the grades. There are only so many boards that go 300 players deep and they usually aren't the better ones, and even then which ones actually provide a "grade" or "value" outside of NFL.com? You'll need some type of value. You then have to ask how much of that value is being created by athleticism that could be present in a modifier like RAS and how much is actually due to performance. I feel as though you need to develop a RPS (relative performance score) that gets mulitplied by RAS to create a value that's actually independent of subjective analysis. Speaking of RAS, you have your over-drafted workout warriors every year. Is there more weight to RAS than to RPS? If you do slot these into tiers, one problem is that there may not be any tier 1 players in the 2022 draft but there will be in the 2023 draft. You have more tier 2 and 3 players though, which push 4's down, etc. You can account for that, but what happens with the chance that a GM reaches down a tier or two and takes a guy that makes everyone go "WHAT?" And then, how do you establish the tiers (value breakpoints)? Even if you managed to nail down how you want to assign grades and tiers, how are you going to account for positional value and team scheme? Some players may fit a 3-4 defense only, some a 4-3 only, and others both. Some receivers can only play the slot, some the Z, some the X, some any. Some teams only like big running backs. You get the point. You get all these "caveats" that are difficult to put into a matrix. These are likely team-by-team coefficients in your algorithm. You certainly have a large task to create a database that houses all the information related to the player variables. To get an algorithm that is all-encompassing, it will need to first reference another database that extracts your team-by-team coefficients. It's going to take alot of thought and work. I think it's a more beneficial project if you attack it trying to create your own AI Mel Kiper than it is to try to use Mel Kiper(s) to create your AI.
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