Quote:
Originally Posted by jd1020
Seems a bit steep.
Carlson is a JAG, imo, at least so far. But he still has 4 years of control and if hes going to get you right around the average WAR for an everyday player you can probably pencil in 10 WAR for the remaining 4+ years of control. And if I look at Happ who is probably going to be around $21M in total arbitration money, Carlson will make a little bit more and probably be around $25M til he hits his FA years. That still leaves Carlson at like $30-40M in surplus, depending on whatever you value WAR at.
Carlson + Walker probably allows you to start going further down the prospect list and filling in the rest with the Burleson's and McGreevy's of the system.
I just dont know if the Nationals would be interested in Carlson since his clock has already started and he's only got 1 pre arb year left.
|
If they want to protect Carlson or Winn from that list, they can take on Corbin's deal.
I think the reason that deal is that heavy is that Corbin's not included in it.
But if, as is rumored, the Mets are said to be making a hard push to drive the price up (even if the Nats won't deal him in the division) and the Cardinals have that offer on their desk right this very second, I think I'd click accept. Especially if there's a negotiation window and they can confirm that an extension will get done.
Carlson proving himself capable of playing a plus CF is a massive boost to his trade value, though. And his value to the Cardinals. While I think he's been very disappointing offensively, if he's a plus CF, he has a 2 WAR baseline. And the swing IS there. The approach IS there. It's just something in his timing or pitch recognition that's keeping him from being a damn good player. There's a lot of talent in there.
If the Cardinals can hold onto him somehow and effectively use him to replace Bader in CF, then they won't have to extend Bader into some pretty iffy years when his deal expires in 2024 and he's due for an extension that starts at 30 yrs old.
I hate hate HATE the idea of losing Winn, but some folks don't think his bat will ever be an asset at the MLB level. If giving up Winn allows us to hold Carlson as the long-term CF with Soto in RF (TON in LF unless he's a flash in the pan, in which case I think I'd put Gorman out there with Donovan at 2b) then it's a bullet I'd take.
Just looking at Cardinals social media, too many Cardinals fans do not understand just how stupid good Juan Soto is. They're driving me completely insane.