Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief
I get it that we are only in the conversation for Soto because we have a player that has a potential MVP ceiling at some point in his career, Walker. That's 6 years of control. Not saying he's Soto or will ever be but the consensus in baseball, from my understanding is he is one of the best prospects right now.
Why does Carlson with 3 years of service left have so much more value than Bader/O'Neill with 2 years left?
|
Carlson has 4 years of service left. He has only accrued just over 1 year of service at the start of this year.
It's simple math for why he is so much more valuable than someone with less control. For one he's just a better major league bet than those 2 and he's got more years of being paid less than his market value. Bader and O'neill don't even have half the trade value of Carlson.
2 players:
A) 2 WAR a year under control for 2 years making ~$15M over his final 2 years of arbitration.
B) 2 WAR a year under control for 4 years, on the same pay scale as player A, making ~$20M over his final 4 years of control.
Say you value WAR at the $6M DJ brought up earlier. Player A is going to be worth ~$24M, minus his $15M his surplus value is $9M. Player B is the exact same value per year but worth $48M, minus his $20M his surplus value is $28M.
Years of control is huge when it comes to a players worth.
EDIT: And Bader actually only has 1 more year of control so there's no ****ing shot they are interested in that. O'Neill is another 2022 season away from being a non-tender. He'll have 3 replacement level seasons after this year. You probably flip him the $5M or w/e he'll get in arb for next year and take a shot he rebounds, but if it's another injury plagued season with 0 impact on the field there's no shot he makes it to arb 3. Their trade values are probably not far off from jack and shit.