Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
2-5 wouldn't shock you?
I mean it's not impossible, but it'd surprise the hell out of me. We're giving them that "well if everything goes WRONG" sort of analysis that we gave the Chiefs in the bad old days.
They could just as easily come out of that at 5-2 and having taken on the bulk of their schedule. In fact, I'd give 2 to 1 odds at 5-2 over 2-5. At that point they're set up extremely well for 13-4 season.
And again, there's just nobody else in the AFC with that kind of upside because the damn conference is just so freakin' hard.
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It wouldn't shock me in that I think there's about a 1/10 chance something like that happens.
I expect Buffalo to lose tonight. I expect the Chiefs to beat them.
Beyond that?
@ Dolphins - Bills likely win (around 3.5/5 chance), but the Dolphins have a TON of speed at WR, a brand-new scheme the Bills have yet to see up close, and a good secondary defensively. Also, Tre White will still be on PUP for this one, leaving Waddle and Hill matched up against a green secondary.
@ Ravens - Baltimore is due for a rebound, has a QB who can give Buffalo problems, it's on the Road, Ravens' secondary is deep and good. I think this is a coin toss.
Packers - Another coin toss for me. Green Bay's secondary is high-quality, especially CB1 and CB2. They can defend the run and get after the passer. And then there's Aaron Rodgers and a really good OL.
Worst-case scenario is certainly 2-5. I'd put that at about 10 percent likelihood.
I just don't think their schedule is as big of a cake walk as it was last year (when they went 11-6), I think Tre White being out will matter more early (when the schedule is hardest), and I think people are overestimating the upgrade from Jerry Hughes to Von Miller.
Yes, Miller is the name. But he also tallied 30 pressures in 764 snaps last year. Hughes popped 26 in 558 snaps.
Again. The Bills are really good. But their road is tougher and the upgrades could easily be smaller than perceived.