[RaidersOftheCellar]

Bill Barnwell:

Brady was stuck in third-and-long for most of the day because the Bucs couldn't run the ball. Leonard Fournette's 12 carries gained 35 yards. His longest run went for 6 yards. This came against a Packers team that just allowed the Bears to run for 180 yards on 27 carries. Admittedly, the threat of Chicago quarterback Justin Fields as a runner is far different from the less mobile Brady, but the Bears don't have an excellent line and still managed to run the ball effectively against Green Bay in Week 2.

What's concerning is these aren't one-week problems. The Packers did a great job on defense Sunday, but the Bucs rank 27th in third-down conversion rate on offense through three games. They've made just five trips to the red zone, which ranks last among the 30 teams that have played three games. The only team with fewer red zone touchdowns is the Broncos.

The running game, likewise, has been bottom of the barrel. The Bucs have generated minus-0.3 EPA per rush attempt this season, which ranks last. Their 33.8% success rate on rush attempts is 29th. Fournette & Co. rank 29th in yards per carry and have been stuffed for no gain or a loss on 28.6% of their attempts, which also ranks 29th.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the NFL's Next Gen Stats model pins this more on the offensive line than it does on Fournette. It projects an average back behind the same blocking would have gained only 4 more yards than Tampa's runners have across 70 tracked carries so far. Based on the blocking and defensive placement alone, the average Bucs run is expected to gain only 3.7 yards per carry, the third-worst mark in the league and ahead of only the 49ers and Ravens.

That line, of course, has been decimated by injuries. The only player from Brady's 2020-21 run who lined up in his original spot for the Packers game is right tackle Tristan Wirfs. Injuries and departures have them starting Patriots import Shaq Mason and inexperienced players Brandon Walton, Luke Goedeke and Robert Hainsey. Walton, an undrafted free agent out of Florida Atlantic, made his NFL debut last week after backup left tackle Josh Wells went down injured. This week, he made his first start while protecting the blind side of the greatest player in league history.

If the Bucs can't run the ball and can't convert third downs, they're limited to picking up big plays through the air. That strategy might work great when they have a full complement of receivers, but again, the Buccaneers are simply down to bare bones there. Mike Evans was suspended after his brawl with the Saints, while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones were both out injured. Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman played through injuries, while the Buccaneers activated Kyle Rudolph and signed Cole Beasley, who came in off the street to run choice routes for six snaps.

As a result, the Bucs were stuck living in quick game. Brady was 24-of-31 for 160 yards on plays in which he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or less, which was good for an 83.3 QBR but generated only 5.2 yards per attempt. He attempted just three deep passes, going 1-of-3 for 24 yards, with the completion to Perriman. Facing a stout Packers pass rush, it seemed clear the Bucs (or Brady himself) didn't trust the pass blocking to hold up. This was probably wise, but it didn't help their chances in Week 3.

All of this inexperience cost the Bucs on the final drive of the game. They nearly took a delay of game on their final series, only for Brady to hit Gage for a 1-yard touchdown. On the ensuing 2-point try, there was no escape. With no timeouts, they struggled to line up correctly. Brady changed the play with three seconds on the play clock, but the snap didn't come on time; while it looked like Fournette would have waltzed into the end zone on the handoff he took, the play was whistled dead. Forced to throw the ball from the 7-yard line, Brady's final pass of the game was knocked away by De'Vondre Campbell to curtail Tampa's comeback.

Let's get this out of the way before he gets mad: There's no issue here with Brady, who physically looks fine. His touchdown pass to Perriman against the Saints was a thing of beauty, a 51.2-yard throw dropped into a bucket from outside the left hash to the opposite corner of the end zone. There are no issues that would lead me to believe Brady is the problem with this offense.

This looks a lot more like the 2019 version of Brady than the one who excelled in 2020 and 2021, though, and that's because the players around him are a lot more like the guys who were lining up during his final season in New England. His playmakers during the second half of that run were either playing through injuries (Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu) or at the very beginning (Jakobi Meyers, N'Keal Harry) or end (Benjamin Watson) of their careers. His line was much better than the one Tampa has rolled out so far this season, but Brady has at least been able to enjoy Evans for most of the first two games of the season.

Unless Brady can somehow coax Rob Gronkowski out of retirement in time for Week 4, he's going to be faced with many of the same problems. Evans will return, which should help the receiving attack immensely, but his offensive line is in shambles. With Ali Marpet retired, Alex Cappa in Cincinnati, Wells on injured reserve and both Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie expected to miss the entire season, the only lineman the Bucs can count on getting back soon is left tackle Donovan Smith.

The good news for the Buccaneers, at least in the short term, is that it might not matter. The NFC South doesn't appear to be a competitive division. The Falcons and Panthers got their first wins this week, but the Saints looked hopeless on offense for stretches against Carolina. They're a frantic comeback against the Falcons away from starting 0-3. Every other team in the division is 1-2, and the Buccaneers already have a divisional win. After the Chiefs game next Sunday, they get three straight against the Falcons, Steelers and Panthers, so they should be able to right the ship.

For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, though, winning the division isn't enough. The dramatic advantage given to the top seed in this 14-team playoff structure as the only team to get a bye makes finishing with the league's best record even more important than it was during Brady's Patriots days. Slipping up against the Packers won't sink Tampa Bay, but it could cost it a tiebreaker against another one of those teams everyone expects to be in the running come January.

I'm sure the Bucs want to bank as many wins as possible right now, but until they get some of their missing offensive personnel back on the field, this is a team relying on its defense to win games.