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Vic Tafur:
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Mahomes has never lost in the NFL as an underdog — he is 7-0-1 against the spread. And now he gets the Bills again in the rematch of last season’s playoff classic. But the Chiefs, with Tyreek Hill now in Miami, are 2-3 ATS this season (I have gone against them every week) and may have been lucky to escape with a win Monday night. Now, the Bills will likely take away Travis Kelce, too. The Bills rank first in pass defense DVOA vs. tight ends and have allowed 33.8 yards per game to TEs, the sixth-lowest in the league. The 8.05 yards/reception by TEs is the third-lowest allowed in the NFL.
Now, think of how much the Chiefs rely on Kelce. Among 23 players with at least 40 targets, Kelce leads the group with first downs on 61.9 percent of his targets (Baltimore’s Mark Andrews is second at 45.7 percent). Kelce also leads the group in EPA/target, with Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs in second place. Meanwhile, Ed Oliver is warming up as the Bills are able to get pressure without blitzing, which turns Mahomes from Captain America to Nighthawk. When pressured without a blitz, Mahomes ranks seventh in EPA/DB (-0.18), compared to first overall (0.31).
The Bills’ offense got Gabe Davis back from an ankle injury last week and he had three catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Allen threw for 348 yards in the first half of that game.
The pick: Bills -3
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