[smithandrew051]

I think the issue with the term “crapshoot” is that it implies every team has an even chance of winning it all, which obviously isn’t true.

It is though a crapshoot amongst the capable teams.

It’s more like the NBA Draft Lottery (a weighted lottery) than a normal raffle.

Having the best team doesn’t guarantee anything, but does weight the odds in your favor. You can still get unlucky and lose to a bad team.

A bad team winning 6 straight games against other tourney teams just isn’t very likely though.