If we learned one thing from Week 10, it's that the NFL playoff picture can change in an instant, which is something the Buffalo Bills found that out the hard way.
Last week, the Bills were sitting at the top of the AFC, but following their improbable loss to the Vikings, they dropped all the way down to the six-seed. Of course, just because they're the six-seed right now doesn't mean they're going to stay there. Can the Bills get back into the top spot in the AFC or did the loss to Minnesota kill their chances of getting a first-round bye?
That's one of the questions we're going to answer right now in this week's playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.
With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections.
AFC Playoff Projection
1. (AFC West Champion)
Chiefs
With the Bills faltering against the Vikings, the biggest winner was the Chiefs, who are now being projected to get the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with it. The computer is projecting that the Chiefs will finish with a 13-4 record, which will put them one game ahead of Buffalo. It's also worth noting that the Chiefs are currently being given the best chance of winning the Super Bowl at 21.25%, which is just slightly ahead of the Bills (20.1%).
2. (AFC East Champion)
Bills
Although the Bills dropped to third place in the AFC East this week, that's not where the computer thinks they're going to finish. According to SportsLine, the Bills are still the projected favorite to win the division. The computer is giving the Bills a 61% chance of taking home the AFC East title, which is much higher than the Dolphins (22.7%), Jets (7%) or Patriots (9.3%).
3. (AFC North Champion)
Ravens
The computer continues to love the Ravens' playoff chances and that's mostly because Baltimore has the easiest remaining strength of schedule out of any team in the NFL. Of the Ravens' final eight opponents, they'll only play ONE team that currently has more than three wins (the Bengals). The computer is giving the Ravens a 96.9% chance of making the playoffs, which means fans in Baltimore should just go ahead and start looking for playoff tickets now.
4. (AFC South Champion)
Titans
The resurgent Colts upset the Raiders on Sunday, but despite that win, the computer doesn't really view them as a threat to the Titans. According to the computer, the Titans have an 86.7% chance of winning the division, even though they're only being projected to go 10-7.
5. Wild Card 1
Dolphins
The Dolphins currently lead the AFC East, but the computer doesn't think they're going to stay there. According to SportsLine, the Dolphins are projected to finish with an 11-5 record, which won't be quite enough to win the AFC East. If the Dolphins don't win the division, that means they'll be hitting the road for the first round of the playoffs, and right now, the computer thinks they'll be playing in Nashville.
6. Wild Card 2
Patriots
The Patriots are currently the seventh-seed in the AFC and the computer actually thinks New England will move UP one spot before the end of the season. According to SportsLine, the Patriots have a 60.2% chance of making the playoffs and if that happens, they're most likely going to end up as the sixth seed.
7. Wild Card 3
Jets
The computer is projecting the Jets to make the playoffs and if that happens, the AFC East would become the first division in NFL history to send each team to the postseason in the same year. Of course, the computer is also expecting a dog fight for the final spot in the AFC. The Jets are being given a 52.9% chance of getting the seventh spot with the Chargers (50.9%) and Bengals (32) also in the running.
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses):
Chargers (50.9%), Bengals (32%), Colts (14.4%), Jaguars (7.7%), Browns (6.3%), Steelers (4.5%), Broncos (1.6%), Raiders (0.7%), Texans (0.2%).