Quote:
Originally Posted by Just:13
That’s not how statistics and averages work.
Dropping 20% of your passes on average doesn’t mean you will drop 1 out of every 5.
You could catch 80 in a row, and then drop 20 in a row, and still be at 20% drop rate.
|
That makes as much sense as flipping a coin and it lands on heads 80 times in a row followed by tails 20. That’s all but unrealistic. Same with Davis and his catch 80 and drop 20. You stated he had a 55% catch rate meaning he drops 45% of them. Based off those numbers of his four TDs the likelihood of him dropping two of them is high. I was generous and said he should have dropped one of them. Even then that gives him a 75% TD catch rate which is 20% higher than his catch rate as per you.
The fact he caught four TDs means that he and thusly Buffalo were very lucky as that was almost double what it should have been. Throw in the DB falling down on TD #4 which doesn’t happen often and Buffalo was beyond lucky. They were lucky the game was as close as it was as KC dominated and only luck made the game competitive in favor of Buffalo.