Quote:
Originally Posted by oldman
Bottom line(s) -
Snap counts are just the number of plays. They're not divided into running snaps or receiving snaps. Therefore, not necessarily a good measure for a WR.
Who does PMII trust? I don't think he's ever trusted Hardman on any route except a go. After almost 4 years you'd think he would understand a 12 yard up and out means 12 yards, not 12.75 or 11.3. One has to question that if Hill didn't have some trouble 4 years ago, would we have even drafted Hardman.
Moore is from a rookie from a school in a weak conference. He'll need some time to adjust to the NFL.
Toney runs the jet sweep just fine and he's harder to bring down than Hardman.
Watson isn't WR1-3, he's 4 at best. But with Hardman injured and Moore still learning, he's been thrust into a role. The team still needs guys to fill the WR4-6 roles.
Until someone steps up and takes pass plays from either Juju or MVS they'll be on the team.
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This isn't terribly difficult data to find, though...
The Chiefs, on the season, had 768 passing snaps. They broke out as:
Kelce -- 600 receiving snaps
MVS -- 554
JJSS -- 528
McKinnon -- 343
Watson -- 295
Gray -- 283
Hardman -- 200
Moore - 167
Pacheco -- 147
MEH -- 124
Fortson -- 104
Toney -- 65
I mean, do what that information what you will, but if it's your position that snaps aren't a reasonable proxy for 'receiving snaps' I'd say that's incorrect. By and large, the correlation appears to be pretty much one for one.
Which makes sense as Andy has always noted that he is cognizant of 'telegraphing' the playcall based on the alignment. So he's just not a guy who's going to run a system where personnel gives a hint as to the play being run.
Ultimately it's difficult to tell what your thesis is here. I gues if it's to speak to Mahomes 'trust' in his receivers you'd want to divide targets by number of routes run?
Kelce -- 600 routes and 150 targets -- targets on 25% of his routes run.
MVS -- 13.7%
JJSS -- 18.4%
McKinnon -- 19.8%
Watson -- 10.8%
Gray -- 12.0%
Hardman -- 16.5%
Moore - 19.2%
Pacheco -- .9%
MEH -- 17.7%
Fortson -- 12%
Toney -- 24.7%
So by that metric, Mahomes actually 'trusts' Moore a pretty fair amount or at the very least isn't shying away from him. And boy howdy, watch out for Toney next year.
Now you see Watson's 10.8% and say "man, Mahomes never actually goes to him with the ball, why's he playing??" You know what Watson's averaged depth of target is? 21 freakin' yards downfield!
So to the 'Moore will replace Watson next season' crowd - nope. Just zero chance of that. Watson is being used almost exclusively as a deep threat. Watson and MVS are actually being used in similar roles. Meanwhile the WR who's ADOT and usage rates are the closest to Moore? You guessed it - JJSS.