Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
I don't care what the betting public is doing. The betting public is bad at betting, or books wouldn't stay in business.
What matters is where the "shark" money is going. That can be indicative of something unseen, especially when it is operating opposite of the betting public movement.
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True statement. Plus, it's a common myth that Vegas creates odds/spreads/lines based on how they believe the public will bet. That's not true.
The opening odds are the oddsmakers' best guesses as to how the game will play out based on the information they have at the time (including injuries, weather, historical performance, home/away, etc). Lines move after that based partly on money coming in, but it includes other factors.
The fact that the Chiefs STILL opened as the favorite vs the Bengals - and those odds factored in Mahomes' injury - says a lot about the talent on this team and about how well Mahomes played through the injury vs the Jaguars. He led a touchdown drive in a critical moment on a bum ankle.