[AdolfOliverBush]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Walter Football weighs in.

Spoiler!

Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 1.5. Total: 51.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It goes without saying that Patrick Mahomes is one of the major reasons why the Chiefs prevailed over the Bengals, but the key to the victory on the other side of the ball was the pass rush battling Cincinnati's offensive line. The Bengals were missing three blockers, which allowed the Kansas City pass rush, enhanced by George Karlaftis' emergence in the second half of the season, to rattle Joe Burrow.

Barring any injuries to Philadelphia's offensive line, the Chiefs will not have similar success in that regard. That's because the Eagles have an elite offensive line. The blocking unit took a hit late in the year when Lane Johnson was knocked out for a game-and-a-half, but Johnson returned for the playoffs. With a week off to heal, Johnson should be at 100 percent.

Hurts will have all the protection he'll need to attack Kansas City's secondary. The Chiefs have some issues in their defensive backfield that will be exploited by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. They also don't defend tight ends particularly well, so Dallas Goedert figures to have a strong performance as well.

The Eagles will also have success rushing the ball. The Chiefs have improved versus the run following some struggles earlier in the season, but it's so difficult to defend Philadelphia's ground attack because Jalen Hurts is also a threat to run. Kenneth Gainwell has particularly shined during the playoff stretch, as he's a dynamic receiver out of the backfield. The Chiefs have difficulty stopping pass-catching running backs, so Gainwell could be a problem.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, but the best quarterbacks in the NFL don't always perform well in the Super Bowl. Mahomes was blown out by the Buccaneers two years ago. Tom Brady was limited in two matchups versus the Giants. There are other examples of this, as Dan Marino, John Elway, and Peyton Manning have all suffered defeats in the "big game."

The common thread between the Mahomes and Brady losses was that the two quarterbacks were battling elite pass-rushing units. I've said this many times, but the only way to defeat an elite quarterback without outscoring them in a shootout is to pressure them heavily and consistently without blitzing. Mahomes, like all elite quarterbacks, is tremendous versus the blitz.

Thus, it's a good thing for the Eagles that they don't blitz very much. That's because they don't need to do so. Philadelphia can set the all-time record for sacks in the regular season and playoffs combined if they get to Mahomes on four occasions, which could happen. The Eagles' stalwart defensive front has a big advantage over the Chiefs' blocking in the trenches.

Making matters worse for Mahomes, his lackluster receivers don't stand a chance to get open versus Philadelphia's elite cornerbacks. Travis Kelce will have a great performance, but the wide receivers won't be able to separate. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon won't find much running room against an Eagles ground defense that has improved markedly since Jordan Davis returned from injury.

RECAP:

The Eagles are favored by 1.5 points as of this writing, but any concern that they'll be cocky as favorites is quelled by the narrative portrayed by blue-check journalists heading into this game. The dumb hive mind believes the following:

The Eagles are so lucky to be in the Super Bowl. They got to battle Daniel Jones and a one-armed Brock Purdy!

While this is true, Philadelphia demolished its competition, as it had done all year except for a multi-week swoon in November when the team seemed to lose focus. This is not the Vikings, who barely scraped by inferior competition all year. The Eagles have crushed their opponents, including the Giants and 49ers. This is because they have the best roster in the NFL. I believed this when I made a 33/1 wager on them to win the Super Bowl back in July, and I believe it now.

Focusing more on this game, Philadelphia's roster is clearly superior to Kansas City's. Aside from quarterback and tight end, I challenge you to find a position where the Chiefs are better than the Eagles. Maybe safety, but I think that's about even. Philadelphia is a bit better at running back and way better at receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, and cornerback. Now, you might be saying to yourself, "How can you just brush off quarterback like that? Mahomes will carry the Chiefs to a win!"

If you're thinking that, here's where you're mistaken. The superior quarterback in the Super Bowl has a losing track record. That's right. Just take a look at the results since 2000:

2000 - Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 - Kurt Warner over Tom Brady*: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 - Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 - Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 - Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 - (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 - Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS

2007 - Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 - (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 - Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 - Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 - Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 - Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 - Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 - Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 - Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 - (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)**
2017 - Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2018 - Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS
2019 - Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS
2020 - Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2021 - (Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow considered even)
2022 - Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: ??? SU, ??? ATS

* - Tom Brady obviously ended up being better than Kurt Warner, but that wasn't the case in 2001 when Brady was a first-year starter and Warner was MVP.

** - Matt Ryan was MVP in 2016, which is why I designated Ryan and Brady as even ahead of the game.

If you don't feel like tallying up the records, here they are: The superior quarterback in the Super Bowl is 7-11 straight up and 5-13 against the spread.

If the superior quarterback is constantly losing in the Super Bowl, it's likely that the opposing team had the better overall roster, and that's the case in most of those matchups. Taking the Mahomes games, the Buccaneers had a disgusting defense that hounded Mahomes all game, while the Giants defenses did the same thing to Brady. In the Brady-Nick Foles matchup, Philadelphia had the best roster in the NFL that year as well. Despite Brady's 500-plus yards, the Eagles still prevailed with Foles.

Again, I don't think there's a question as to which team is better. Philadelphia's pass rush, receiving corps, offensive line, and cornerback group are so much better than anything the Chiefs possess. It's not even close.

And here's the kicker: Philadelphia's two "weaker" positions, quarterback and tight end, are not much worse than Kansas City's players! Mahomes is obviously better than Hurts, but Hurts just enjoyed an MVP-caliber year. And I'm sure the Eagles would rather have Travis Kelce over Dallas Goedert, but Goedert is arguably a top-five tight end in the NFL.

I'm so convinced that the Eagles will win that I'm making this selection my February NFL Pick of the Month. The last time I made the Super Bowl a Pick of the Month, the Buccaneers destroyed the Chiefs. I think there's a chance this could be a blowout as well, but I'm going with the prediction of 27-21 because I could see Mahomes throwing a touchdown late in the game to make this closer than it should be.

BUT WHAT IF I'M HEDGING!? I'm right there with you. As mentioned, I have a 33/1 ticket on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl. I'm going to hedge with the Chiefs by betting up to +3.5. This way, I can middle if the Eagles win by 1-3 points. This is not something I would recommend if you don't have a futures wager on Philadelphia, so keep that in mind.

The is where he proves himself to be an idiot:

"The Eagles are favored by 1.5 points as of this writing, but any concern that they'll be cocky as favorites is quelled by the narrative portrayed by blue-check journalists heading into this game. The dumb hive mind believes the following:"

I'm surprised he didn't mix in a "red pill" reference.