The author of this post runs a betting website. I've posted another Twitter thread he made about Hurts v Mahomes performance. TL;DR version is that Hurts play, as measured by EPA, drops tremendously when facing a good defense.
THis new thread analyzes why he thinks the Chiefs are seriously undervalued as underdogs in the SB. He gives 3 factors in this gave that favor the Chiefs and 1 that favors the Eagles. TL;DR version on this one is that the strong numbers from the Eagles' defense come from how they play and that style does not match up well against offenses like KC's and Mahomes in particular. Anyway, it's a lengthy thread so I can't really post it but it's well worth the time to review.
https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFL/s...32605966319619