|
Your calculations sure look a bit light here.
There is some discounting of future year's picks. Usually somewhere between the middle of the next round and half of this year's pick. So a 1st next year will have a value somewhere between 95 and 121 points on the Hill model. I usually shoot for some average so call it 108. That means a future first can get you somewhere around 17-18.
I'd say our 1-3-f3 will get you to about 22, not 18. 1-3-4 got us to 21 last year from 29 and a current 4 and future 3 have nearly the same value. 18 seems more like a 1-3-f2.
There is variance though in historical trades so it's not an exact science. Just something for you to think about and maybe dig into.
|