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Originally Posted by Megatron96
We have to use past production because we obviously can't use future production. And I fudged the numbers for both Skyy and Toney several times, because obviously we don't have hardly any production to speak of, so we have to extrapolate some realistic numbers. Last weekend I even fudged numbers for Justin Watson and Noah Gray.
But there are actual mins a team needs to get to in order to have a serious shot at the playoffs. They vary depending on the team, but they exist for each team.
So, just for example, if we look at the Chiefs defense for the last four years and average out a bunch of stats, we find that overall the Chiefs defense allows 75% of teams to score their average. Which coincidentally is right about what our defense allowed last season.
So, take LAC. They basically will score about 26 points vs. the Chiefs. KC tends to score 28+ against LAC. Shockingly, most of the games between KC and LAC are decided by a FG or so, and KC wins most of those games.
When KC plays most any AFC team, the defense allows right about their scoring average, and the Chiefs offense, until 2022, scored nearly a TD more than what the opposing defense usually gave up against anyone else.
Against most NFC teams the Chiefs tend to score nearly a TD above their average, as opposed to AFC teams, no idea why.
Anyway, I can take all those numbers and come up with a basic idea of how many TDs, 1st downs, 3rd down conversions, RZ efficiency, etc. it would take KC to probably get into the playoffs. It wouldn't be precise, but it would be in the ballpark. They won't tell me which games we'll win, but it will tell me indirectly roughly how many TDs KC will need to earn a playoff seed, as long as the defense plays at least as well as they have over the last four years. If the defense somehow craps out, then obviously all that math goes out the window.
It's about the only thing all those season total stats are really good for anyway. Looking at larger sets of numbers, like over a couple years, over five years, whatever.
Anyway, the point is, we can ballpark it. So it's not exactly true that we don't know how many TDs/1st downs/etc. we need. We have enough data to make a decent guess.
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Sure, sort of. But it's pseudo-science. The defense four years ago has exactly one player on it for 2023. Oh wait, two, forgot Nnadi. So, totally different guys. Very different strengths and skillsets. And even 2022's defensive stats don't tell us a lot about what 2023's defense will perform like, because we played 6 rookies, with McDuffie missing over half of the season. So even comparing '22 and '23 isn't apples to apples considering they were over half rookies last year.
The '21 defense was like...28th in sacks. '22 we were 2nd, with 55. Big difference. But with a youthful secondary they gave up a lot of points the first half of the season before settling in. Also schedule played a part. So there are a lot of moving parameters and you can't really just take a broad swipe and get a clear picture.
Now, we were first in yards, and first in scoring. If you're telling me that not only do we have to lead the league in yards and scoring again, but we have to at least match our totals from last year (again, in a vacuum, ignoring all of the variables of each team) in order to contend for a championship again, I say hogwash.
It's possible. But I doubt it. I don't Veach and Andy feel that way, or they wouldn't have invested so heavily in the defense last year.
And I'll tell you this-If Mahomes stays healthy, and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes don't put a top five offense on the field, I'll eat YOUR shorts.
I'll cover those skivvies in Zim's sauce and choke 'em down.